NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	89		Excitement	5.6 [687]		MVP	Charles Oakley (TOR): +16.6%
Toronto Raptors	101		Comeback	1.1 [1193]		LVP	Ron Mercer (CHI): -15.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Crawford	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.02	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Benjamin	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	12	58%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	26	55%	0.06	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Fred Hoiberg	0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	5	70%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dragan Tarlac	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	13	57%	0.02	2	-0.08	9	89%	0.02
Michael Ruffin	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02
Khalid El-Amin	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
A.J. Guyton	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.05	0.00	13	36%	-0.10	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.13	0.04	0.01	10	80%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	8	69%	0.07	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	12	57%	0.09	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.01	0.03	7	69%	0.03	1	-0.02	12	67%	-0.03
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	12	42%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Tyrone Corbin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.05	-0.02	11	37%	-0.10	1	-0.03	8	75%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	9	23%	-0.10	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.3	27.5	15.8	25.0	1.8	35.3	132.5
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +17.1%

TOR +6.8%

TOR +19.8%

TOR +3.7%

TOR +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	TOR	NBA	CHI	TOR	NBA
this game	15.6	16.0	15.5	97.8	111.0	100.9
season	16.4	15.8		95.2	103.7
opponent	15.4	15.1		101.6	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.3	16.3	15.3	14.7	15.6
TOR	14.4	17.2	16.7	15.9	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fred Hoiberg	22	23	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	-9	6	15.3	15.7	-0.42	15.7	16.1	-0.36
Jamal Crawford	37	36	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.08	1	-13	14	12.6	17.7	-5.13	17.4	15.1	2.23
A.J. Guyton	12	11	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	-7	2	21.8	14.7	7.14	12.0	16.6	-4.56
Dragan Tarlac	37	39	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.08	-2	-10	8	15.3	15.9	-0.57	17.7	14.7	2.94
Metta World Peace	74	72	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	-10	8	14.9	18.9	-3.99	16.0	15.9	0.15
Khalid El-Amin	18	19	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.08	-5	-7	2	15.9	15.6	0.38	15.8	16.1	-0.21
Ron Mercer	64	64	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.04	-11	-1	-10	16.0	14.7	1.33	15.8	16.6	-0.83
Elton Brand	82	81	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.14	-8	-4	-4	15.8	14.0	1.82	15.6	19.0	-3.36
Corey Benjamin	53	55	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.04	-14	2	-16	16.3	14.7	1.59	16.1	15.9	0.11
Michael Ruffin	56	55	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.17	-11	-1	-10	16.2	14.7	1.50	15.7	16.6	-0.90

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Morris Peterson	55	53	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.09	15	-3	18	15.0	17.5	-2.51	16.2	14.8	1.37
Charles Oakley	66	66	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.11	10	2	8	16.7	14.3	2.33	16.2	14.1	2.15
Mark Jackson	75	75	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.10	9	3	6	15.7	17.7	-2.03	16.0	13.9	2.14
Kevin Willis	48	48	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.19	5	7	-2	16.2	15.8	0.46	16.2	15.0	1.12
Antonio Davis	63	63	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.09	5	7	-2	15.5	17.2	-1.74	15.1	16.9	-1.76
Dell Curry	37	37	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.20	1	11	-10	17.4	15.0	2.40	13.8	16.9	-3.08
Tyrone Corbin	21	21	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.06	7	5	2	16.4	15.9	0.48	12.9	16.5	-3.61
Alvin Williams	51	52	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.07	1	11	-10	16.3	15.6	0.64	15.7	15.6	0.13
Vince Carter	7	7	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.09	6	6	0	12.0	16.3	-4.35	18.6	15.4	3.18
Corliss Williamson	32	33	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.03	1	11	-10	16.5	15.7	0.75	16.1	15.4	0.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.75,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.69,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 92, MIA 95	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.66,0.72,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.9,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.91,0.91,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.91,1	94.6%
IND 97, CHI 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.86,0.83,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.66,0.74,0.73,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.96,1,0.99,1,1	94.4%
UTA 85, PHI 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.65,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.85,0.88,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%