NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	87		Excitement	7.4 [191]		MVP	Darrell Armstrong (ORL): +43.0%
Orlando Magic	94		Comeback	4.2 [175]		LVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): -30.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0.23	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.12	0.11	0.00	13	72%	0.23	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Keith Askins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Blue Edwards	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	7	44%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	7	29%	-0.11	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.05	-0.03	6	33%	-0.09	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.02
Tim Hardaway	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.05	0.01	15	60%	0.06	8	-0.22	5	80%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	-0.31	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.31	-0.12	-0.16	0.02	20	53%	-0.04	8	-0.26	5	40%	-0.04

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.22,0.35,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.43	0.43	0.14	0.27	-0.02	10	86%	0.45	2	-0.02	9	100%	0.07
Dominique Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
B.J. Armstrong	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	8	56%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Anderson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	3	50%	-0.05	1	-0.01	6	50%	-0.05
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	13	57%	0.08	6	-0.18	4	75%	0.01
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	9	52%	-0.04	2	-0.06	11	55%	-0.06
Ike Austin	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	12	43%	-0.00	3	-0.10	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.8	26.6	18.8	27.4	3.3	42.7	148.1
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +36.7%

MIA -0.4%

ORL +3.3%

ORL +13.0%

MIA -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	15.8	16.4	15.8	96.7	105.6	99.6
season	16.6	16.1		101.3	98.0
opponent	15.6	16.7		95.7	96.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.0	16.3	15.5	16.4	15.8
ORL	15.7	16.5	15.8	17.9	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Blue Edwards	55	56	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.04	1	-8	9	15.0	16.9	-1.85	15.5	18.1	-2.60
Keith Askins	7	7	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-7	7	14.1	15.9	-1.75	16.0	16.5	-0.46
Alonzo Mourning	82	81	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.19	-2	-5	3	15.8	15.6	0.14	16.0	20.7	-4.75
Clar. Weatherspoon	25	25	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.10	-6	-1	-5	16.4	15.5	0.84	18.9	15.5	3.47
P.J. Brown	71	69	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.34	-4	-3	-1	15.9	15.1	0.82	16.6	15.8	0.81
Terry Porter	53	50	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.34	-5	-2	-3	15.8	15.7	0.09	16.5	16.3	0.21
Tim Hardaway	74	76	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.22	-11	4	-15	15.6	16.5	-0.91	16.7	14.8	1.94
Dan Majerle	83	81	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.33	-8	1	-9	16.1	11.1	5.00	16.3	17.6	-1.32

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Armstrong	55	56	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.38	8	-1	9	16.3	16.6	-0.31	15.8	15.6	0.17
Derek Strong	25	25	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.20	14	-7	21	18.1	15.8	2.35	18.3	14.8	3.50
Matt Harpring	66	68	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.31	4	3	1	16.6	15.9	0.75	16.4	13.9	2.44
Anfernee Hardaway	75	74	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.27	4	3	1	16.6	15.4	1.27	15.4	17.2	-1.82
Michael Doleac	29	30	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.16	5	2	3	17.5	15.9	1.62	16.4	15.4	1.02
Ike Austin	60	60	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.13	2	5	-3	15.9	17.5	-1.62	15.4	16.4	-1.02
Nick Anderson	59	60	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.00	2	5	-3	15.5	18.3	-2.83	15.4	16.4	-0.97
Dominique Wilkins	13	12	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.08	4	3	1	17.5	16.2	1.30	15.5	15.8	-0.29
B.J. Armstrong	1	1	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.01	-1	8	-9	11.0	16.5	-5.49	2.0	15.9	-13.91
Horace Grant	62	64	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.10	-7	14	-21	16.2	17.0	-0.88	15.0	17.6	-2.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.28,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.31,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.31,0.19,0.29,0.26,0.29,0.35,0.37,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.65,0.67,0.75,0.93,0.91,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 92, DEN 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.24,0.29,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.65,0.67,0.55,0.84,0.96,0.97,1	92.7%
IND 78, DET 88	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.24,0.3,0.33,0.48,0.5,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.36,0.59,0.48,0.76,0.84,0.97,1,1	92.5%
ATL 85, CHH 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.19,0.22,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.43,0.38,0.43,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.72,0.86,0.97,0.97,1,1	92.4%