NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	89		Excitement	4.6 [551]		MVP	Vitaly Potapenko (CLE): +12.0%
Cleveland Cavaliers	99		Comeback	1.6 [279]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -11.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Rose	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Avery Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Jaren Jackson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerard King	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Sean Elliott	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	5	50%	0.00	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.00
Mario Elie	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	8	41%	-0.06	2	-0.03	6	83%	-0.01
David Robinson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.06	0.02	5	73%	0.02	3	-0.11	12	83%	0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	30	50%	0.05	6	-0.17	2	50%	-0.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.02	0.01	5	100%	0.12	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Wesley Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.02	7	57%	0.08	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	11	56%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	12	53%	0.01	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.01
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	4	44%	-0.02	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	4	47%	-0.03	1	-0.00	11	64%	-0.01
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	0.03	17	54%	-0.02	2	-0.05	12	75%	0.00
Cedric Henderson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	7	29%	-0.06	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	2.4	28.6	15.7	22.6	1.8	38.5	138.9
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +10.8%

CLE +6.3%

SAS -7.0%

CLE +31.9%

CLE +8.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CLE	NBA	SAS	CLE	NBA
this game	15.8	16.4	15.8	98.9	111.2	99.6
season	15.9	16.3		101.1	97.3
opponent	16.2	15.9		99.2	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.9	18.2	15.3	14.8	15.8
CLE	18.7	16.9	16.0	14.6	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio Daniels	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-10	10	13.0	15.8	-2.79	7.0	16.5	-9.53
Gerard King	3	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-8	6	9.0	16.0	-6.99	3.0	16.9	-13.90
Jaren Jackson	54	51	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.25	8	-18	26	15.3	16.4	-1.10	17.5	15.0	2.44
Malik Rose	10	11	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-8	6	19.3	15.3	3.99	18.7	16.1	2.62
Mario Elie	51	52	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.23	5	-15	20	14.9	16.9	-2.06	16.2	16.7	-0.47
David Robinson	47	51	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.24	4	-14	18	16.1	15.4	0.65	18.3	14.0	4.28
Steve Kerr	45	43	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.06	-12	2	-14	16.0	15.5	0.53	15.2	17.6	-2.45
Jerome Kersey	36	31	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.00	-12	2	-14	15.6	15.9	-0.24	14.8	17.3	-2.44
Tim Duncan	84	82	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.25	-8	-2	-6	15.5	19.8	-4.37	16.1	20.6	-4.50
Avery Johnson	66	68	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.24	-9	-1	-8	15.9	15.4	0.52	16.5	16.1	0.43
Sean Elliott	53	52	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	0.04	-22	12	-34	16.7	14.4	2.34	16.7	16.1	0.64

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cedric Henderson	53	51	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.13	14	-4	18	15.2	18.3	-3.11	15.6	15.9	-0.30
Shawn Kemp	69	69	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.33	1	9	-8	16.2	17.2	-1.06	14.9	18.6	-3.67
Brevin Knight	60	61	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.21	5	5	0	15.9	17.6	-1.72	15.1	17.1	-1.99
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	63	61	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.34	0	10	-10	18.0	12.5	5.49	16.2	14.9	1.27
Wesley Person	40	38	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.21	4	6	-2	18.0	15.1	2.95	15.1	16.2	-1.08
Vitaly Potapenko	33	34	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.24	18	-8	26	13.7	18.0	-4.34	17.8	14.5	3.28
Derek Anderson	49	52	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.00	6	4	2	15.1	18.0	-2.95	16.2	15.1	1.08
Bob Sura	29	29	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.00	5	5	0	17.6	15.9	1.72	17.1	15.1	1.99
Johnny Newman	42	45	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	9	-8	17.5	15.4	2.12	15.8	15.7	0.04
Danny Ferry	7	10	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.03	-4	14	-18	20.0	16.1	3.88	12.8	16.1	-3.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.51,0.58,0.67,0.62,0.65,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,0.98,1,1,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 102, NOP 109	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.74,0.69,0.79,0.84,0.9,0.94,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
DET 88, NYK 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.74,0.74,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.96,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.2%
WAS 102, IND 117	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.71,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.78,0.87,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%