NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	91		Excitement	6.9 [409]		MVP	Eldridge Recasner (ATL): +30.2%
Washington Wizards	81		Comeback	8.3 [165]		LVP	Chris Whitney (WAS): -22.4%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eldridge Recasner	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.17	0.13	0.00	7	106%	0.30	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Mookie Blaylock	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,0.08,0.08	-0.05	0.12	-0.01	13	53%	0.18	4	-0.10	4	75%	0.01
Tyrone Corbin	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	10	55%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steven Smith	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.01	0.03	9	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	9	100%	0.04
Anthony Miller	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	12	55%	0.03	3	-0.07	7	71%	-0.00
Chucky Brown	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Christian Laettner	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21	-0.12	-0.10	-0.00	6	31%	-0.10	3	-0.12	4	75%	-0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.22	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.19	-0.10	-0.07	9	23%	-0.12	4	-0.10	4	25%	-0.04

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ledell Eackles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	64%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
God Shammgod	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	0.00	15	50%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Terry Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	10	50%	0.08	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	12	48%	0.01	2	-0.05	3	33%	0.02
Chris Webber	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19	-0.19	-0.06	-0.16	-0.03	19	45%	-0.15	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.05
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.18	-0.07	-0.03	14	36%	-0.04	7	-0.18	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.8	1.7	21.3	15.4	24.5	2.5	31.5	126.8
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +22.3%

ATL +4.5%

ATL +16.9%

ATL +1.5%

ATL +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	WAS	NBA	ATL	WAS	NBA
this game	16.3	15.4	15.6	100.0	89.0	102.5
season	16.1	15.1		105.3	102.8
opponent	15.6	16.0		102.2	101.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.7	18.0	14.6	18.6	16.3
WAS	13.0	14.8	15.4	19.3	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Laettner	53	51	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.26	15	-5	20	16.8	15.6	1.19	16.1	14.4	1.65
Mookie Blaylock	83	84	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.13	18	-8	26	16.1	18.5	-2.44	15.6	12.9	2.73
Dikembe Mutombo	62	63	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.28	10	0	10	16.6	15.6	0.96	15.6	14.9	0.64
Tyrone Corbin	70	70	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.22	10	0	10	17.1	13.7	3.39	16.4	11.8	4.63
Steven Smith	67	66	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.17	8	2	6	14.9	20.2	-5.29	15.0	16.5	-1.53
Eldridge Recasner	36	38	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.00	3	7	-4	18.7	14.7	3.96	16.0	14.9	1.08
Anthony Miller	11	12	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	10	-10	16.5	16.2	0.31	15.0	15.4	-0.43
Chucky Brown	19	17	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.01	-5	15	-20	13.3	17.1	-3.81	12.1	16.1	-4.08
Alan Henderson	54	54	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	-0.03	-9	19	-28	15.9	16.8	-0.95	13.9	17.5	-3.52

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Wallace	62	63	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.09	5	-15	20	15.1	15.9	-0.77	16.3	16.2	0.14
Darvin Ham	9	10	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.02	2	-12	14	9.8	16.0	-6.21	13.7	16.6	-2.89
Ledell Eackles	25	27	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.15	4	-14	18	15.5	15.3	0.20	18.0	15.5	2.45
God Shammgod	19	20	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.07	-2	-8	6	14.2	15.7	-1.47	17.2	16.0	1.19
Tracy Murray	53	52	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	-5	0	14.6	16.5	-1.89	15.6	17.2	-1.54
Terry Davis	12	11	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.09	-7	-3	-4	14.2	15.6	-1.39	18.6	15.9	2.69
Chris Whitney	72	71	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.14	-8	-2	-6	15.7	14.2	1.47	16.0	17.2	-1.19
Juwan Howard	78	76	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.11	-9	-1	-8	15.8	12.5	3.31	16.1	17.3	-1.27
Calbert Cheaney	54	52	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.08	-15	5	-20	16.0	14.5	1.54	15.7	17.1	-1.40
Chris Webber	71	73	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.18	-15	5	-20	16.0	13.0	3.04	16.7	14.5	2.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.44,0.47,0.56,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.78,0.75,0.75,0.79,0.87,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.71,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.22,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 90, GSW 82	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.75,0.79,0.86,0.86,0.87,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.81,0.77,0.81,0.79,0.7,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.53,0.38,0.29,0.31,0.04,0	92.5%
PHI 111, HOU 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.63,0.71,0.8,0.85,0.78,0.79,0.89,0.86,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.9,0.92,0.88,0.8,0.68,0.41,0.3,0.34,0.62,0.55,0.23,0.08,0	92.0%
HOU 91, NOH 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.54,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.63,0.7,0.82,0.86,0.83,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.69,0.78,0.87,0.87,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.77,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.38,0.22,0.23,0.27,0	91.7%