NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	90		Excitement	6.4 [490]		MVP	Donyell Marshall (GSW): +24.0%
Golden State Warriors	82		Comeback	13.9 [224]		LVP	Jim Jackson (GSW): -25.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0.08,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.06	0.01	17	60%	0.15	1	-0.04	6	83%	-0.00
Voshon Lenard	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.08	0.01	10	59%	0.11	0	0.00	7	100%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.04	0.01	15	66%	0.15	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.06	0.00	15	53%	0.07	0	0.00	8	100%	0.08
Duane Causwell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Eric Murdock	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Keith Askins	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21	-0.09	-0.12	-0.00	10	20%	-0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.13	0.09	-0.01	16	74%	0.28	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.05
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	71%	0.11	1	-0.08	15	67%	-0.02
Todd Fuller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	3	33%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Felton Spencer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	7	43%	0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	4	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Muggsy Bogues	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	4	44%	-0.01	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.02
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	4	44%	0.00	3	-0.10	1	0%	-0.01
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.25,-0.26	-0.26	-0.17	-0.10	-0.01	14	36%	-0.04	6	-0.21	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	1.0	29.4	15.6	26.4	2.6	31.7	129.6
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -22.5%

MIA +9.7%

MIA +16.9%

MIA +50.8%

GSW -4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	GSW	NBA	MIA	GSW	NBA
this game	15.8	17.7	15.6	105.9	94.3	102.5
season	15.8	15.6		104.7	92.9
opponent	15.0	16.2		102.8	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.2	16.4	13.7	15.7	15.8
GSW	14.8	15.6	20.6	20.4	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	78	78	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.25	13	-5	18	15.9	13.9	2.08	17.7	18.1	-0.46
Dan Majerle	63	64	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.30	11	-3	14	15.1	17.6	-2.46	18.6	15.1	3.55
Voshon Lenard	65	66	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.30	10	-2	12	15.8	15.5	0.35	17.9	17.1	0.80
Alonzo Mourning	57	60	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.24	10	-2	12	16.4	14.6	1.78	18.1	16.7	1.45
Tim Hardaway	74	76	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.24	5	3	2	15.1	19.9	-4.76	17.0	22.5	-5.55
Eric Murdock	26	27	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.04	2	6	-4	17.6	14.9	2.67	19.3	17.0	2.31
Duane Causwell	27	27	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	8	-8	14.7	16.3	-1.61	17.4	17.8	-0.37
Keith Askins	35	37	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	0.02	-11	19	-30	16.2	15.5	0.74	15.6	19.3	-3.71

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Felton Spencer	3	2	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.04	-1	-7	6	18.7	17.7	1.00	6.0	16.0	-10.00
Todd Fuller	13	12	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.01	-3	-5	2	21.2	17.1	4.06	16.3	15.7	0.66
Tony Delk	27	27	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.03	-5	-3	-2	19.4	16.9	2.42	17.4	15.0	2.46
Muggsy Bogues	57	56	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.09	-3	-5	2	16.6	19.7	-3.05	14.7	17.8	-3.08
Jason Caffey	40	39	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.09	-3	-5	2	19.2	16.4	2.73	16.2	15.4	0.81
Clar. Weatherspoon	47	46	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.18	-5	-3	-2	16.4	19.2	-2.73	15.4	16.2	-0.81
Bimbo Coles	30	29	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.18	-5	-3	-2	19.7	16.6	3.05	17.8	14.7	3.08
Jim Jackson	73	70	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.27	-2	-6	4	17.3	19.8	-2.48	15.7	16.1	-0.45
Erick Dampier	71	71	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.31	-4	-4	0	17.0	20.7	-3.66	15.9	14.9	1.09
Donyell Marshall	74	73	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.29	-9	1	-10	17.5	18.9	-1.44	15.2	19.1	-3.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.75,0.79,0.86,0.86,0.87,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.81,0.77,0.81,0.79,0.7,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.53,0.38,0.29,0.31,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 99, DAL 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.8,0.77,0.72,0.73,0.83,0.84,0.89,0.78,0.72,0.7,0.8,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.39,0.38,0.28,0.24,0.15,0	93.5%
ATL 91, WAS 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.44,0.47,0.56,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.78,0.75,0.75,0.79,0.87,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.71,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.22,0.02,0	92.5%
CHA 100, MIN 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.68,0.7,0.78,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.84,0.84,0.79,0.89,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.83,0.68,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.72,0.77,0.79,0.66,0.72,0.53,0.22,0.06,0.01,0	92.2%