NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	99		Excitement	6.3 [513]		MVP	Chris Robinson (SAC): +26.7%
Sacramento Kings	105		Comeback	3.9 [385]		LVP	Michael Finley (DAL): -14.3%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Martin Muursepp	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.01	7	73%	0.10	1	-0.00	8	87%	0.03
Hubert Davis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.10	-0.03	0.05	11	73%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0.00	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.01	0.02	12	61%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Shawn Respert	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.02	11	50%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Khalid Reeves	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	8	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Riley	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	7	29%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.02	0.02	22	46%	-0.03	4	-0.11	6	83%	-0.02

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.10	0.13	-0.04	15	67%	0.27	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.04
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.00	10	60%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.03	-0.03	15	63%	0.12	3	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Mark Hendrickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Lawrence Funderburke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Olden Polynice	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	8	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Billy Owens	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.03	15	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terry Dehere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	9	22%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.17	0.02	-0.03	13	41%	0.00	5	-0.12	8	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.9	2.5	22.4	15.6	24.0	2.5	31.6	120.3
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +38.9%

DAL -13.4%

SAC +13.4%

SAC +7.8%

SAC +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAC	NBA	DAL	SAC	NBA
this game	14.2	15.5	15.6	101.0	109.4	102.5
season	15.8	15.2		98.3	98.5
opponent	15.3	15.5		104.3	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.2	11.3	17.3	13.7	14.2
SAC	14.7	15.0	15.5	16.9	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Riley	14	12	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.06	4	-10	14	14.6	14.1	0.44	18.8	15.0	3.80
Martin Muursepp	77	76	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.18	8	-14	22	13.4	17.0	-3.57	15.6	15.1	0.52
Khalid Reeves	38	36	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.03	-5	-1	-4	15.9	13.1	2.82	15.9	15.3	0.61
Erick Strickland	49	46	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.00	-6	0	-6	15.1	13.3	1.73	16.8	14.4	2.40
Shawn Respert	52	52	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.30	1	-7	8	12.7	15.8	-3.08	14.1	17.2	-3.17
Hubert Davis	60	60	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.35	-1	-5	4	13.1	15.9	-2.82	15.3	15.9	-0.61
Shawn Bradley	41	43	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.29	-4	-2	-2	13.5	14.7	-1.21	14.0	16.7	-2.65
Michael Finley	98	96	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	0	-6	14.2	0.0	14.19	15.5	0.0	15.51
A.C. Green	61	59	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.14	-21	15	-36	16.1	11.1	5.00	16.1	14.6	1.45

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Otis Thorpe	72	73	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.26	14	-8	22	15.4	15.7	-0.32	14.7	12.8	1.82
Billy Owens	84	86	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.32	11	-5	16	15.3	16.9	-1.61	14.4	13.0	1.36
Corliss Williamson	75	77	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.32	10	-4	14	15.8	14.6	1.14	15.0	11.1	3.94
Chris Robinson	67	67	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.30	8	-2	10	15.7	15.0	0.68	14.0	14.5	-0.47
Anthony Johnson	68	69	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.26	7	-1	8	14.7	17.4	-2.71	14.5	13.4	1.11
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	16	18	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	6	-6	13.7	15.9	-2.19	14.8	14.1	0.72
Terry Dehere	41	42	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.08	-3	9	-12	17.2	14.3	2.94	13.6	14.6	-0.96
Lawrence Funderburke	16	17	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.02	-3	9	-12	14.3	15.7	-1.44	11.3	14.8	-3.51
Mark Hendrickson	17	16	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.03	-6	12	-18	16.5	15.3	1.24	12.3	14.6	-2.25
Olden Polynice	24	25	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.07	-8	14	-22	15.7	15.4	0.32	12.8	14.7	-1.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.58,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.6,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.86,0.76,0.88,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.99,0.98,0.94,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 82, SAS 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.36,0.28,0.3,0.21,0.19,0.2,0.24,0.29,0.32,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.8,0.93,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
ATL 117, NJN 125	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.22,0.23,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.91,0.96,0.99,0.96,0.95,0.99,1,0.99,1	94.8%
LAC 97, MIA 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.56,0.48,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.79,0.75,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1	93.9%