NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	82		Excitement	5.3 [721]		MVP	Jaren Jackson (SAS): +12.3%
San Antonio Spurs	96		Comeback	5.3 [649]		LVP	Reggie Geary (SAS): -22.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Goldwire	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.10	0.01	0.06	7	87%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	0.03	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.01	0.04	12	58%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Johnny Newman	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	9	67%	-0.02
Eric Washington	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.11	-0.00	-0.05	7	31%	-0.01	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Cory Alexander	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.04	-0.02	11	37%	-0.03	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Bobby Jackson	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	-0.00	3	12%	-0.10	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02
Danny Fortson	-0.20	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.08	-0.06	0.06	18	44%	-0.10	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.08	0.02	10	65%	0.12	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.14	0.01	0.05	16	74%	0.13	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	7	75%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.07	-0.00	0.07	6	79%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Brad Lohaus	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	7	53%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	7	45%	-0.04	0	0.00	8	75%	0.00
Carl Herrera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	5	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	3	30%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.04
Reggie Geary	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,-0.07,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	6	37%	-0.11	3	-0.11	7	29%	-0.12

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.4	24.4	15.7	27.9	1.8	25.2	118.6
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +32.9%

DEN -5.1%

SAS +14.7%

SAS +11.4%

DEN -3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	15.3	16.2	15.6	90.1	104.3	102.5
season	16.2	15.9		96.7	100.9
opponent	15.9	15.2		97.2	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.4	12.5	14.4	17.4	15.3
SAS	16.1	17.5	15.0	16.1	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryant Stith	10	10	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.02	0	-14	14	12.7	15.6	-2.88	16.1	16.2	-0.12
Eric Washington	4	5	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-14	14	9.5	15.5	-6.03	15.2	16.3	-1.06
Dean Garrett	45	45	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.13	-1	-13	12	13.9	16.6	-2.72	14.8	17.5	-2.67
Tony Battie	28	29	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-10	6	13.2	16.2	-2.96	16.2	16.2	0.05
Cory Alexander	70	71	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.00	-8	-6	-2	15.3	15.0	0.28	16.2	16.2	0.02
LaPhonso Ellis	69	68	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.02	-8	-6	-2	16.5	11.4	5.08	16.9	14.3	2.53
Bobby Jackson	32	33	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.15	-8	-6	-2	14.0	16.0	-2.00	16.1	16.3	-0.23
Anthony Goldwire	70	68	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.02	-13	-1	-12	16.5	11.1	5.42	16.5	15.3	1.24
Johnny Newman	60	61	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.11	-11	-3	-8	15.2	15.4	-0.14	16.5	15.7	0.75
Danny Fortson	63	65	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.04	-17	3	-20	16.2	13.2	3.01	16.1	16.4	-0.34

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Geary	58	57	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.07	18	-4	22	16.5	15.8	0.70	15.2	15.3	-0.10
Will Perdue	64	64	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.07	16	-2	18	16.4	15.8	0.60	15.9	13.9	2.01
Vinny Del Negro	45	44	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.09	16	-2	18	16.5	15.9	0.55	17.1	13.5	3.63
Malik Rose	25	23	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.03	10	4	6	15.4	16.5	-1.05	16.5	14.9	1.63
Jaren Jackson	52	53	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.21	2	12	-10	15.9	16.6	-0.74	15.2	15.4	-0.18
Tim Duncan	61	62	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.02	8	6	2	15.7	17.2	-1.44	16.2	13.3	2.87
Monty Williams	35	36	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	11	-8	17.0	15.7	1.23	12.1	17.4	-5.31
Avery Johnson	33	34	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	12	-10	16.2	16.2	-0.09	15.4	15.2	0.28
Brad Lohaus	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	14	-14	15.2	16.3	-1.06	9.5	15.5	-6.03
Carl Herrera	19	17	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	15	-16	17.5	15.9	1.60	10.9	16.3	-5.32
David Robinson	24	24	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.03	-6	20	-26	16.2	16.2	0.00	15.7	15.1	0.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.36,0.28,0.3,0.21,0.19,0.2,0.24,0.29,0.32,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.8,0.93,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 99, SAC 105	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.58,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.6,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.86,0.76,0.88,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.99,0.98,0.94,0.98,1	94.9%
ATL 117, NJN 125	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.22,0.23,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.91,0.96,0.99,0.96,0.95,0.99,1,0.99,1	93.6%
SAS 103, NOP 119	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.25,0.32,0.25,0.36,0.24,0.19,0.29,0.28,0.45,0.48,0.6,0.68,0.54,0.7,0.79,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.88,0.86,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.3%