NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	83		Excitement	6.9 [408]		MVP	Bo Outlaw (ORL): +9.9%
Orlando Magic	92		Comeback	1.8 [773]		LVP	Tony Delk (GSW): -18.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Caffey	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.09,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.05	-0.01	5	54%	0.08	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.03
Erick Dampier	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	12	65%	0.05	1	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
Duane Ferrell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Felton Spencer	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	-0.05	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	22	46%	-0.05	0	0.00	6	67%	0.01
Gerald Madkins	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	1	50%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	13	38%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	15	40%	0.03	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.06	-0.06	0.02	7	47%	-0.02	3	-0.12	1	100%	0.01
Tony Delk	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19	-0.17	-0.04	-0.02	5	15%	-0.08	4	-0.11	3	67%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	0.00	11	67%	0.10	0	0.00	11	55%	-0.08
Horace Grant	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	15	44%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Derek Harper	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	0.02	4	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.02
David Benoit	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Schayes	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	10	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	-0.02	-0.06	15	43%	-0.04	1	-0.02	12	83%	0.02
Mark Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	9	45%	0.07	4	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	6	44%	-0.07	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.05
Gerald Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	0.00	5	29%	-0.08	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	1.7	28.0	16.0	30.0	2.0	33.3	133.1
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +21.9%

GSW -7.3%

ORL +1.7%

ORL +30.3%

ORL +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	ORL	NBA	GSW	ORL	NBA
this game	16.5	16.2	15.6	93.3	105.7	102.5
season	15.6	16.7		92.9	100.3
opponent	15.6	15.0		101.4	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	19.2	14.7	15.8	16.8	16.5
ORL	17.7	16.6	16.2	14.5	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Madkins	21	20	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.04	-1	-8	7	14.1	17.3	-3.14	14.4	16.7	-2.32
Duane Ferrell	3	2	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.02	0	-9	9	11.0	16.7	-5.73	10.0	16.3	-6.33
Felton Spencer	22	21	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-7	5	15.5	16.9	-1.32	14.0	16.9	-2.82
Jim Jackson	66	64	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.20	3	-12	15	16.4	16.8	-0.39	17.3	13.1	4.21
Clar. Weatherspoon	68	68	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.18	1	-10	11	16.6	16.4	0.14	16.4	15.5	0.91
Jason Caffey	24	22	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.06	-7	-2	-5	15.8	16.8	-0.97	16.7	16.0	0.73
Tony Delk	27	27	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.07	-11	2	-13	16.5	16.6	-0.08	13.2	17.5	-4.29
Erick Dampier	67	66	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.25	-7	-2	-5	16.9	15.5	1.32	16.9	14.0	2.82
Muggsy Bogues	68	67	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.27	-8	-1	-7	17.3	14.1	3.14	16.7	14.4	2.32
Donyell Marshall	79	78	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.19	-13	4	-17	17.0	12.6	4.44	16.1	16.7	-0.54

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bo Outlaw	72	75	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.17	15	-6	21	16.3	15.8	0.46	17.3	12.7	4.54
Derek Strong	67	66	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.27	6	3	3	15.5	18.3	-2.81	16.1	17.7	-1.56
Horace Grant	68	70	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.18	8	1	7	17.2	12.7	4.48	16.9	15.1	1.89
Mark Price	47	49	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.18	8	1	7	14.6	18.0	-3.36	15.6	17.7	-2.20
Derek Harper	52	51	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.18	5	4	1	17.0	15.0	1.98	17.5	15.3	2.23
Kevin Edwards	31	33	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.08	4	5	-1	14.5	17.1	-2.59	14.8	17.5	-2.69
Dan Schayes	46	48	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.03	1	8	-7	15.9	16.5	-0.62	15.9	17.3	-1.49
Gerald Wilkins	44	45	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.03	1	8	-7	18.1	14.3	3.81	17.8	15.3	2.51
David Benoit	8	8	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.04	-3	12	-15	14.2	16.4	-2.13	13.7	16.8	-3.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.74,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.52,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.72,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.82,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 107, PHX 116	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.41,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.79,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.96,1,1,1	93.7%
HOU 98, GSW 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.83,0.78,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.5,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.86,0.93,0.97,0.97,1	93.6%
POR 79, LAL 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.49,0.59,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.72,0.8,0.77,0.77,0.67,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.59,0.7,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.59,0.66,0.56,0.52,0.62,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.65,0.69,0.88,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1	92.8%