NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	98		Excitement	6.8 [443]		MVP	James Harden (HOU): +22.0%
Golden State Warriors	99		Comeback	2.0 [872]		LVP	Josh Smith (HOU): -18.3%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.22	0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.18,0.2,0.22	0.23	0.02	0.03	21	73%	0.27	2	-0.05	10	90%	0.02
Dwight Howard	0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17	0.07	0.11	-0.00	11	66%	0.21	2	-0.04	7	43%	-0.10
Jason Terry	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.02	7	64%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pablo Prigioni	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Jones	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	12	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	8	44%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	5	25%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Smith	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.11	-0.07	0.00	17	29%	-0.14	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.11	0.04	-0.01	21	73%	0.34	6	-0.18	3	67%	-0.01
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	4	100%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.03	0.02	9	74%	0.13	4	-0.09	1	0%	-0.01
Klay Thompson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	15	43%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Festus Ezeli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	0.01	8	44%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	9	48%	0.01	4	-0.09	7	71%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	3.4	27.5	15.8	24.5	3.6	44.0	145.2
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +29.9%

GSW +6.2%

HOU -1.7%

HOU -13.2%

GSW +28.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	GSW	NBA	HOU	GSW	NBA
this game	15.7	15.6	15.1	106.5	107.6	104.2
season	14.3	13.6		105.6	109.2
opponent	15.5	14.9		99.7	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	12.3	17.8	19.5	14.7	15.7
GSW	13.0	15.7	15.7	18.9	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Johnson	5	4	0.07	-0.57	0.65	0.02	2	-3	5	20.4	15.4	4.96	18.5	15.5	3.03
James Harden	79	80	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.46	12	-13	25	15.0	19.8	-4.73	15.6	15.6	0.02
Jason Terry	65	68	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.47	12	-13	25	16.1	14.7	1.42	16.1	14.2	1.94
Clint Capela	13	13	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	4	-9	19.2	15.1	4.01	16.8	15.4	1.45
Pablo Prigioni	17	16	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.10	-10	9	-19	13.8	16.1	-2.31	13.8	16.0	-2.16
Terrence Jones	51	50	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.51	10	-11	21	14.7	17.0	-2.25	15.7	15.4	0.31
Josh Smith	39	41	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.02	-9	8	-17	17.2	14.6	2.56	15.8	15.5	0.29
Dwight Howard	79	78	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.47	4	-5	9	15.1	19.2	-4.01	15.6	15.6	-0.05
Trevor Ariza	75	75	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.49	2	-3	5	15.8	15.1	0.72	15.6	15.4	0.23
Corey Brewer	37	35	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.12	-23	22	-45	16.2	15.4	0.81	14.2	16.5	-2.30

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Iguodala	59	58	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.47	2	-1	3	16.4	14.2	2.26	15.8	15.5	0.37
Harrison Barnes	55	54	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.38	1	0	1	15.6	15.6	0.01	15.8	15.6	0.17
Leandro Barbosa	28	30	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.08	14	-13	27	14.4	16.1	-1.78	16.8	15.2	1.57
Andrew Bogut	58	59	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.04	8	-7	15	15.4	15.9	-0.54	16.1	15.1	0.96
Festus Ezeli	22	22	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.03	7	-6	13	15.5	15.6	-0.13	16.9	15.3	1.52
Shaun Livingston	26	26	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.13	3	-2	5	16.4	15.3	1.15	17.2	15.1	2.07
Klay Thompson	64	62	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.55	-13	14	-27	16.1	14.4	1.78	15.2	16.8	-1.57
Draymond Green	76	76	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.46	-10	11	-21	15.2	17.4	-2.15	15.0	18.9	-3.91
Stephen Curry	72	73	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.37	-7	8	-15	15.2	16.9	-1.73	15.1	18.1	-2.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.83,0.78,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.5,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.86,0.93,0.97,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 83, ORL 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.74,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.52,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.72,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.82,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.98,1	93.6%
GSW 107, PHX 116	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.41,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.79,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.96,1,1,1	93.0%
POR 79, LAL 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.49,0.59,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.72,0.8,0.77,0.77,0.67,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.59,0.7,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.59,0.66,0.56,0.52,0.62,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.65,0.69,0.88,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1	92.5%