NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	87		Excitement	3.7 [1019]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +5.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	104		Comeback	1.2 [1209]		LVP	LaPhonso Ellis (DEN): -15.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cory Alexander	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.03	13	57%	0.06	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Danny Fortson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.00	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Eric Washington	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	7	36%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Wolf	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	13	55%	-0.01	1	-0.02	14	86%	0.01
Dean Garrett	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	-0.04	11	33%	-0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Goldwire	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	-0.04	13	42%	-0.04	3	-0.03	5	100%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.14	0.00	-0.02	5	0%	-0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.02	0.00	14	35%	-0.10	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.02	16	65%	0.09	4	-0.04	8	100%	0.03
Andrew Lang	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Hill	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	7	64%	0.05	2	-0.03	8	75%	-0.00
Armen Gilliam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	67%	0.03	1	-0.01	8	100%	0.02
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	6	43%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Jamie Feick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Jerald Honeycutt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Elliot Perry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	11	50%	0.01	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Litterial Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	24	43%	-0.02	3	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.8	24.0	15.5	28.1	1.8	29.3	126.5
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +30.6%

MIL +7.5%

MIL +16.0%

DEN -5.5%

MIL +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIL	NBA	DEN	MIL	NBA
this game	14.5	15.6	15.6	91.6	108.3	102.5
season	16.2	16.0		96.7	101.1
opponent	15.1	15.2		102.8	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.3	14.8	13.6	12.6	14.5
MIL	14.7	15.9	15.2	16.7	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Wolf	13	14	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.09	1	-18	19	13.3	14.7	-1.40	21.8	14.6	7.20
Eric Washington	45	45	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.10	1	-18	19	14.0	15.0	-1.06	15.7	15.5	0.18
Danny Fortson	52	54	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.08	-4	-13	9	14.0	15.1	-1.10	16.6	14.4	2.23
Cory Alexander	56	57	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.05	-5	-12	7	13.3	16.3	-3.04	15.9	15.2	0.68
Tony Battie	27	27	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.27	-19	2	-21	16.9	13.6	3.26	11.3	17.3	-5.99
LaPhonso Ellis	70	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.04	-11	-6	-5	15.4	12.1	3.25	16.5	13.1	3.46
Anthony Goldwire	72	74	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.12	-17	0	-17	14.6	14.2	0.45	14.6	19.2	-4.60
Dean Garrett	64	64	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.02	-14	-3	-11	14.7	14.2	0.53	15.0	17.0	-2.00
Johnny Newman	76	74	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.01	-17	0	-17	14.4	14.8	-0.34	15.8	15.0	0.82

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrone Hill	66	66	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.06	21	-4	25	15.3	16.3	-0.97	15.0	13.4	1.59
Ray Allen	79	80	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.08	11	6	5	15.8	15.1	0.70	14.5	14.7	-0.18
Glenn Robinson	70	69	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.02	13	4	9	16.4	13.7	2.72	15.2	12.7	2.46
Michael Curry	52	52	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.02	11	6	5	15.5	15.7	-0.21	14.0	15.1	-1.05
Armen Gilliam	56	56	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.10	7	10	-3	17.2	13.4	3.79	14.4	14.7	-0.26
Elliot Perry	70	67	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.04	8	9	-1	15.2	16.9	-1.77	14.1	15.6	-1.55
Ervin Johnson	45	45	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.10	1	16	-15	15.7	15.6	0.06	15.2	13.9	1.34
Litterial Green	21	20	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.03	5	12	-7	15.3	15.7	-0.45	14.4	14.5	-0.08
Andrew Lang	8	8	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.04	2	15	-13	15.9	15.6	0.26	15.7	14.4	1.35
Jamie Feick	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	14	-11	9.3	16.1	-6.72	10.4	14.7	-4.34
Jerald Honeycutt	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	14	-11	8.6	16.2	-7.62	9.6	14.9	-5.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.74,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.92,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 94, IND 108	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.8,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.92,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1	96.5%
IND 71, MEM 82	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.75,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
POR 58, CLE 84	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.76,0.79,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.87,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%