NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Vancouver Grizzlies	101		Excitement	5.9 [592]		MVP	Carl Thomas (CLE): +23.0%
Cleveland Cavaliers	106		Comeback	1.1 [1092]		LVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (VAN): -17.8%

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pete Chilcutt	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	9	78%	0.17	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	11	64%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Lee Mayberry	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	7	56%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.00
Blue Edwards	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	7	53%	-0.00	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.00
Bobby Hurley	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	2	33%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Bryant Reeves	-0.07	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	0.05	20	56%	-0.02	2	-0.05	12	58%	-0.07
Michael Smith	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	4	42%	-0.03	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Antonio Daniels	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	8	37%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.06	-0.00	7	55%	-0.03	6	-0.15	6	83%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carl Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.11	0.09	-0.03	5	108%	0.25	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.00
Cedric Henderson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.02	0.02	18	67%	0.10	2	-0.05	9	67%	-0.02
Wesley Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.08	0.09	-0.04	14	47%	0.10	4	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	17	59%	0.11	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	9	67%	0.06	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.04
Shawnelle Scott	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	6	29%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Brevin Knight	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.12	0.00	-0.02	8	41%	0.01	5	-0.11	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	2.7	24.0	15.6	27.4	2.6	39.2	137.3
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +39.4%

CLE +1.0%

CLE +0.6%

CLE +6.7%

CLE +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	VAN	CLE	NBA	VAN	CLE	NBA
this game	14.6	14.5	15.6	103.1	106.0	102.5
season	15.1	15.4		101.3	99.4
opponent	16.0	15.3		97.0	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
VAN	14.3	16.0	13.9	14.0	14.6
CLE	13.3	12.8	16.1	15.9	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Smith	34	36	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.05	-1	-4	3	15.1	14.3	0.79	14.5	14.5	0.02
Bobby Hurley	8	9	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-6	7	15.9	14.5	1.39	20.2	13.9	6.30
Bryant Reeves	71	72	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.27	6	-11	17	14.6	14.6	-0.04	14.5	14.6	-0.11
Blue Edwards	53	54	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.13	-1	-4	3	13.8	15.5	-1.68	14.7	14.2	0.55
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	54	56	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.10	-4	-1	-3	14.0	15.3	-1.34	14.1	15.0	-0.83
George Lynch	44	44	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.25	-1	-4	3	15.3	14.0	1.34	15.0	14.1	0.83
Lee Mayberry	81	83	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.36	-1	-4	3	14.7	14.2	0.51	13.8	18.0	-4.23
Tony Massenburg	27	28	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.08	-11	6	-17	14.6	14.6	0.04	14.6	14.5	0.11
Antonio Daniels	54	54	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.17	-9	4	-13	15.0	14.1	0.97	14.4	14.6	-0.22
Pete Chilcutt	64	64	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.40	-4	-1	-3	14.3	15.1	-0.79	14.5	14.5	-0.02

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	81	81	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.18	18	-13	31	13.9	17.0	-3.10	14.3	15.9	-1.55
Brevin Knight	78	74	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.25	10	-5	15	14.8	13.5	1.21	14.4	15.4	-1.02
Wesley Person	84	82	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.34	3	2	1	14.3	15.6	-1.28	14.2	16.9	-2.72
Cedric Henderson	83	80	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.22	4	1	3	14.2	15.9	-1.68	14.8	13.7	1.15
Carl Thomas	42	40	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.26	2	3	-1	14.6	14.4	0.22	14.6	14.6	-0.05
Shawn Kemp	64	65	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.09	3	2	1	14.3	14.8	-0.45	14.8	14.2	0.59
Vitaly Potapenko	30	28	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.23	-5	10	-15	16.2	13.7	2.49	14.7	14.5	0.21
Bob Sura	13	15	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	7	-9	15.0	14.4	0.59	13.5	14.8	-1.26
Scott Brooks	12	12	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.05	-3	8	-11	13.2	14.7	-1.41	16.9	14.3	2.64
Shawnelle Scott	13	13	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.11	-5	10	-15	16.7	14.2	2.53	17.1	14.2	2.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.75,0.77,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.83,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.86,0.8,0.74,0.86,0.8,0.76,0.67,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.66,0.56,0.69,0.81,0.84,0.9,0.87,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.91,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 82, ATL 95	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.7,0.72,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.85,0.82,0.79,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	93.9%
CHA 95, ORL 102	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.8,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.76,0.63,0.75,0.87,0.81,0.9,0.86,0.88,0.83,0.88,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	93.8%
MIA 83, LAL 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.86,0.87,0.81,0.76,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.6,0.68,0.85,0.87,0.82,0.83,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.98,1,1,1	93.8%