NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	83		Excitement	5.2 [621]		MVP	Andrew Bynum (LAL): +15.5%
Los Angeles Lakers	93		Comeback	1.1 [535]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -14.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Chalmers	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.01	0.02	12	60%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Norris Cole	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dexter Pittman	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	0	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
LeBron James	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	26	45%	0.05	3	-0.07	3	33%	-0.02
Joel Anthony	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.02	6	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Mike Miller	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	11	32%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	5	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	5	23%	-0.06	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.13,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	0.00	17	44%	0.01	5	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Bynum	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.05	-0.03	11	62%	0.15	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.04	0.00	10	71%	0.15	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.11	-0.01	0.02	23	62%	0.16	3	-0.09	7	71%	0.00
Andrew Goudelock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	4	37%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.00	10	46%	0.01	4	-0.08	4	75%	0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.00	0.03	4	40%	-0.04	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.8	34.0	19.6	26.7	2.8	45.3	158.4
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +51.8%

LAL +1.1%

LAL +6.3%

MIA -11.6%

LAL +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAL	NBA	MIA	LAL	NBA
this game	17.3	16.5	15.6	97.6	109.4	102.8
season	15.5	16.2		105.6	103.8
opponent	15.1	15.8		103.5	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.0	17.0	17.9	16.4	17.3
LAL	12.8	20.0	17.2	17.0	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	54	54	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.17	4	-14	18	17.3	17.4	-0.07	17.3	15.3	2.02
Juwan Howard	15	15	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.12	1	-11	12	17.1	17.4	-0.33	19.9	15.8	4.12
Dexter Pittman	8	8	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.05	-5	-5	0	20.1	17.1	3.07	16.9	16.5	0.37
Norris Cole	21	20	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-6	2	18.4	17.0	1.38	16.7	16.5	0.21
Mike Miller	32	34	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.02	-7	-3	-4	16.7	17.7	-0.95	15.2	17.5	-2.27
Joel Anthony	62	62	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.14	-6	-4	-2	17.0	18.1	-1.08	15.7	18.9	-3.19
Udonis Haslem	36	37	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.09	-9	-1	-8	17.8	17.0	0.85	14.9	17.8	-2.92
Shane Battier	56	55	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.22	-5	-5	0	17.3	17.4	-0.06	17.6	14.6	3.00
Mario Chalmers	64	65	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.20	-6	-4	-2	17.0	18.4	-1.38	16.5	16.7	-0.21
LeBron James	77	75	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.12	-13	3	-16	17.4	16.9	0.51	16.7	15.6	1.07

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kobe Bryant	69	70	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.19	8	2	6	16.2	18.1	-1.95	17.4	17.1	0.33
Pau Gasol	65	65	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.20	7	3	4	16.6	16.2	0.45	17.1	18.1	-0.99
Metta World Peace	66	68	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.15	8	2	6	16.6	16.4	0.22	17.0	18.5	-1.49
Troy Murphy	33	34	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.06	10	0	10	16.2	16.7	-0.54	18.0	16.9	1.05
Steve Blake	50	49	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.21	3	7	-4	16.9	16.0	0.92	17.6	17.0	0.64
Andrew Bynum	71	70	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.17	2	8	-6	16.8	15.4	1.42	17.3	17.6	-0.31
Derek Fisher	35	36	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.06	8	2	6	15.5	17.2	-1.70	16.9	17.7	-0.83
Matt Barnes	19	17	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.06	2	8	-6	16.4	16.6	-0.22	18.5	17.0	1.49
Andrew Goudelock	17	16	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.05	2	8	-6	18.2	16.1	2.12	17.2	17.4	-0.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.86,0.87,0.81,0.76,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.6,0.68,0.85,0.87,0.82,0.83,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.98,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 88, NYK 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.73,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.8,0.87,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.81,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.89,0.87,0.89,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.99,0.99,1	95.9%
NOH 88, UTA 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.77,0.83,0.78,0.77,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.85,0.76,0.65,0.61,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.79,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.9,0.95,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1	95.0%
ATL 94, OKC 107	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.7,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.61,0.68,0.55,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.72,0.81,0.82,0.79,0.89,0.91,0.87,0.89,0.87,0.95,0.96,0.99,1,1	95.0%