NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	74		Excitement	3.3 [1098]		MVP	Ledell Eackles (WAS): +4.9%
Washington Wizards	88		Comeback	1.0 [833]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): -15.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	14	54%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Terry Mills	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Murdock	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	11	58%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Keith Askins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	2	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	-0.01	-0.05	16	59%	0.05	6	-0.09	9	67%	-0.02
P.J. Brown	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.11	-0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.00	0.00	7	28%	-0.09	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03
Ike Austin	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.20	-0.00	-0.10	16	41%	0.01	8	-0.12	2	0%	-0.02
Tim Hardaway	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.18	-0.02	-0.05	6	0%	-0.09	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ledell Eackles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.01	0.01	8	67%	0.05	0	0.00	5	100%	0.01
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.02	12	64%	0.06	2	-0.02	9	78%	0.02
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.03	11	63%	0.07	2	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	12	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Terry Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.08	0.00	-0.06	4	30%	-0.00	2	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.14	-0.00	-0.09	13	27%	-0.04	1	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Chris Webber	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.21	0.01	-0.13	20	27%	-0.03	2	-0.04	5	80%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	1.7	25.4	14.6	31.0	1.8	35.2	134.0
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +16.9%

WAS +11.1%

MIA -11.8%

WAS +30.0%

WAS +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	15.0	16.1	15.6	79.6	95.7	102.5
season	15.8	15.1		104.7	102.8
opponent	15.6	16.2		102.2	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.3	16.5	13.8	12.9	15.0
WAS	14.2	17.0	16.9	16.6	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Murdock	42	41	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.32	11	-25	36	13.6	16.1	-2.47	16.8	15.6	1.20
Mark Strickland	16	15	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.12	4	-18	22	13.0	15.4	-2.42	15.8	16.2	-0.41
Terry Mills	38	35	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-13	12	14.9	15.0	-0.09	17.4	15.4	2.08
Jamal Mashburn	37	37	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-11	8	16.9	13.8	3.10	16.9	15.7	1.21
Keith Askins	12	12	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.16	-12	-2	-10	21.1	14.1	6.98	12.4	16.7	-4.28
Alonzo Mourning	55	54	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.15	-4	-10	6	13.9	16.6	-2.67	15.8	16.7	-0.92
Voshon Lenard	68	66	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.22	-2	-12	10	14.5	16.2	-1.70	16.9	14.2	2.66
P.J. Brown	45	44	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.11	-14	0	-14	14.4	15.6	-1.25	16.3	16.0	0.30
Ike Austin	62	65	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.08	-8	-6	-2	14.9	15.2	-0.29	15.7	17.2	-1.53
Dan Majerle	39	40	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.13	-16	2	-18	15.5	14.7	0.79	15.4	16.7	-1.27
Tim Hardaway	51	51	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	0.23	-25	11	-36	16.1	13.6	2.47	15.6	16.8	-1.20

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rod Strickland	83	82	0.52	-0.02	0.55	-0.00	18	-4	22	15.7	19.8	-4.03	15.2	13.8	1.34
Chris Webber	82	82	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.16	7	7	0	16.1	16.3	-0.18	14.5	18.8	-4.33
Calbert Cheaney	62	61	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.16	7	7	0	15.4	17.7	-2.31	14.4	16.1	-1.72
Juwan Howard	74	74	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.21	5	9	-4	16.1	16.3	-0.24	15.4	13.3	2.12
Terry Davis	52	51	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.04	11	3	8	17.7	14.2	3.48	14.7	15.4	-0.74
Ledell Eackles	28	29	0.25	0.25	0.00	-0.07	11	3	8	18.0	15.3	2.67	17.0	14.1	2.86
Tracy Murray	42	45	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.05	6	8	-2	13.8	18.1	-4.33	15.0	15.0	-0.04
Darvin Ham	28	30	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.12	9	5	4	16.9	15.8	1.03	15.2	14.9	0.34
Chris Whitney	9	11	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.09	-4	18	-22	19.8	15.7	4.03	13.8	15.2	-1.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.69,0.74,0.74,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.89,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.89,0.89,0.87,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.86,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.84,0.92,0.83,0.84,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 97, TOR 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.8,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.89,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.9,0.86,0.9,0.84,0.87,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.2%
POR 78, NYK 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.84,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
VAN 97, DEN 121	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.76,0.8,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.88,0.94,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.87,0.89,0.86,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%