NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	97		Excitement	3.2 [1121]		MVP	Vince Carter (TOR): +9.2%
Toronto Raptors	106		Comeback	1.0 [997]		LVP	Mike Miller (ORL): -7.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Horace Grant	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	12	60%	0.05	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Don Reid	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	4	67%	0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Tracy McGrady	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	18	60%	0.08	4	-0.06	9	100%	0.03
Jud Buechler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	8	59%	0.02	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
Monty Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	4	25%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.07	12	65%	-0.01	2	-0.03	7	86%	0.01
Pat Garrity	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	7	27%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	0.00	0.05	7	57%	-0.04	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.00	-0.00	23	63%	0.13	3	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	7	64%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	10	63%	0.07	3	-0.04	7	100%	0.03
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.06	8	44%	0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.03	16	61%	0.04	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Hakeem Olajuwon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	53%	0.02	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Chris Childs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	5	58%	0.02	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	9	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	29.4	17.5	27.3	3.3	24.7	127.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +31.1%

ORL -1.9%

TOR +12.1%

TOR +5.0%

TOR +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	TOR	NBA	ORL	TOR	NBA
this game	14.7	17.1	15.6	107.8	116.5	102.3
season	14.6	16.2		104.6	100.3
opponent	15.6	15.8		100.9	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.8	12.4	15.7	14.3	14.7
TOR	15.2	17.1	17.0	19.0	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Hunter	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-10	11	6.0	14.8	-8.84	18.0	17.1	0.94
Jud Buechler	3	3	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.04	1	-10	11	12.7	14.8	-2.15	13.3	17.2	-3.86
Monty Williams	20	21	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-7	5	14.5	14.8	-0.31	16.6	17.2	-0.58
Troy Hudson	50	52	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.15	-1	-8	7	13.4	16.4	-3.02	17.3	16.7	0.61
Don Reid	24	24	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.10	-12	3	-15	16.3	14.2	2.11	15.3	17.7	-2.41
Pat Garrity	45	45	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.21	-4	-5	1	15.5	14.0	1.58	16.4	17.7	-1.23
Horace Grant	74	74	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-4	-1	15.0	13.4	1.59	17.6	14.6	3.05
Darrell Armstrong	76	76	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.18	-6	-3	-3	14.6	15.6	-0.98	17.4	15.4	1.99
Tracy McGrady	81	82	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.20	-8	-1	-7	14.8	14.3	0.46	17.2	16.0	1.18
Mike Miller	76	77	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.17	-9	0	-9	14.8	14.6	0.12	17.1	17.1	-0.01

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	72	72	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.10	12	-3	15	17.4	15.7	1.68	14.9	13.9	1.00
Antonio Davis	80	79	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.23	7	2	5	17.2	15.8	1.42	14.8	14.2	0.64
Jerome Williams	64	62	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.07	9	0	9	17.0	17.3	-0.27	14.9	14.4	0.56
Hakeem Olajuwon	27	26	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.17	17	-8	25	15.6	17.7	-2.15	16.3	14.1	2.14
Chris Childs	54	54	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.33	-2	11	-13	17.4	16.5	0.93	14.2	15.6	-1.40
Alvin Williams	57	56	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.18	2	7	-5	16.9	17.3	-0.36	13.9	16.1	-2.21
Dell Curry	36	37	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.07	5	4	1	16.5	17.4	-0.89	14.7	14.8	-0.07
Keon Clark	65	64	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.36	-5	14	-19	17.3	16.5	0.74	14.9	14.5	0.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.8,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.89,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.9,0.86,0.9,0.84,0.87,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 74, WAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.69,0.74,0.74,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.89,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.89,0.89,0.87,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.86,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.84,0.92,0.83,0.84,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	97.2%
POR 78, NYK 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.84,0.89,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
GSW 119, SAC 129	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.79,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.87,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.9,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%