NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	119		Excitement	3.0 [1199]		MVP	Marcus Thornton (SAC): +23.7%
Sacramento Kings	129		Comeback	1.1 [823]		LVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): -7.7%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	14	68%	0.10	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.11	0.00	0.05	8	78%	0.09	2	-0.03	7	86%	0.01
Al Thornton	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.17	0.00	0.11	8	82%	0.06	1	0.00	12	75%	0.01
Vladimir Radmanovic	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.10	-0.00	0.07	10	80%	0.04	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	0.00	0.05	4	83%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.00
Reggie Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	10	48%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Andris Biedrins	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Acie Law	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.06	4	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Lou Amundson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	0%	-0.02
Monta Ellis	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	16	41%	-0.06	2	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Thornton	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.33	0.01	0.11	20	78%	0.24	0	0.00	14	86%	0.01
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.02	0.02	-0.08	10	60%	0.13	3	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	16	64%	0.13	5	-0.07	10	70%	-0.01
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.07	0.01	-0.09	8	50%	0.06	4	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	3	83%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	12	50%	0.04	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	7	57%	0.01	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	0.00	0.04	6	83%	0.02	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Darnell Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	2.7	34.6	12.0	29.2	2.5	36.3	143.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +30.3%

SAC +12.8%

SAC +7.3%

GSW -1.4%

SAC +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAC	NBA	GSW	SAC	NBA
this game	13.7	13.8	15.5	114.4	121.7	105.7
season	14.8	14.9		106.6	102.1
opponent	14.9	15.2		107.7	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.4	12.8	14.2	13.1	13.7
SAC	10.9	14.8	14.1	15.7	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Thornton	46	45	0.10	-0.59	0.69	-0.64	25	-35	60	12.8	14.3	-1.52	15.6	12.4	3.21
Reggie Williams	42	44	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.44	11	-21	32	13.8	13.5	0.26	14.3	13.4	0.93
Lou Amundson	23	23	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.02	-5	-5	0	15.8	13.0	2.73	14.3	13.6	0.62
Ekpe Udoh	27	30	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.36	8	-18	26	12.9	13.9	-1.03	13.0	14.1	-1.03
Acie Law	49	50	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.23	2	-12	14	14.2	13.2	1.04	14.6	13.0	1.64
Andris Biedrins	34	34	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.04	-9	-1	-8	13.6	13.7	-0.01	13.9	13.7	0.16
Vladimir Radmanovic	60	63	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.23	0	-10	10	13.8	13.5	0.35	14.1	13.2	0.91
Stephen Curry	55	56	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	2	-14	13.2	14.2	-1.04	13.0	14.6	-1.64
Monta Ellis	62	62	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.23	-21	11	-32	13.5	13.8	-0.26	13.4	14.3	-0.93
David Lee	57	58	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.29	-25	15	-40	13.8	13.4	0.42	12.2	15.7	-3.46
Dorell Wright	65	65	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.24	-24	14	-38	13.5	13.9	-0.35	13.6	14.0	-0.33

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Thornton	92	90	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.01	17	-7	24	13.7	14.4	-0.67	13.6	14.1	-0.48
DeMarcus Cousins	58	56	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.01	17	-7	24	13.7	13.9	-0.15	14.1	13.1	1.02
Francisco Garcia	70	68	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.23	24	-14	38	13.4	14.5	-1.14	13.4	14.2	-0.87
Samuel Dalembert	87	85	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.04	16	-6	22	12.8	18.3	-5.47	13.8	13.1	0.67
Beno Udrih	74	72	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.13	8	2	6	13.2	15.0	-1.80	13.2	14.8	-1.63
Luther Head	46	46	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.27	-5	15	-20	14.8	13.0	1.86	14.6	12.9	1.63
Omri Casspi	39	39	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.43	-13	23	-36	14.1	13.6	0.48	13.9	13.5	0.43
Jason Thompson	61	61	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.19	-5	15	-20	15.4	11.6	3.78	13.5	13.9	-0.35
Darnell Jackson	3	3	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.26	-9	19	-28	16.0	13.7	2.29	7.7	13.8	-6.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.79,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.87,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.9,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 71, SEA 100	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%
BOS 88, WAS 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.8,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.85,0.91,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
GSW 109, OKC 114	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.75,0.69,0.73,0.79,0.75,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.82,0.81,0.85,0.9,0.95,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.86,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,1	96.3%