NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	93		Excitement	5.8 [629]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +45.9%
Miami Heat	96		Comeback	1.4 [1081]		LVP	Johnny Newman (DEN): -14.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Jackson	0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,0.21	0.01	0.21	0.01	15	56%	0.27	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Dean Garrett	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.01	0.01	8	70%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Priest Lauderdale	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	79%	0.01	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.01
Bryant Stith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.01	8	58%	-0.00	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Anthony Goldwire	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Joe Wolf	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	11%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Danny Fortson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.14	-0.01	-0.03	6	37%	-0.01	5	-0.12	4	100%	0.02
Johnny Newman	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.03	0.00	9	33%	-0.07	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.46	0.46	0.12	0.34	-0.00	16	72%	0.50	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	8	61%	0.02	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	56%	0.01	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Eric Murdock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	5	62%	0.04	3	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	15	49%	0.02	2	-0.04	5	20%	-0.06
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	15	44%	0.00	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.13	-0.00	-0.03	6	21%	-0.05	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	2.4	32.5	16.7	29.8	1.7	36.3	142.2
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +44.1%

DEN -12.4%

MIA +8.4%

MIA +6.4%

MIA +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIA	NBA	DEN	MIA	NBA
this game	15.8	16.7	15.6	104.5	109.1	102.5
season	16.2	15.8		96.7	104.7
opponent	16.2	15.2		99.8	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.5	16.0	18.4	13.3	15.8
MIA	16.5	17.5	13.5	19.4	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Goldwire	16	17	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.00	-3	0	-3	16.1	15.8	0.27	21.1	15.7	5.40
Priest Lauderdale	20	20	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.18	1	-4	5	15.0	16.1	-1.09	17.6	16.4	1.22
Joe Wolf	30	33	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	3	-9	15.9	15.8	0.14	15.2	17.6	-2.44
Danny Fortson	47	46	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.03	-12	9	-21	16.9	14.6	2.32	16.8	16.6	0.25
Dean Garrett	69	68	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	0	-3	16.1	15.0	1.09	16.4	17.6	-1.22
Johnny Newman	68	67	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.38	1	-4	5	15.3	17.6	-2.32	16.3	17.9	-1.58
Bobby Jackson	73	71	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.41	0	-3	3	15.8	16.1	-0.27	15.7	21.1	-5.40
Bryant Stith	67	66	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.29	-6	3	-9	15.6	16.5	-0.87	16.4	17.6	-1.24

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	64	63	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	-1	5	16.3	17.8	-1.49	16.7	13.8	2.87
Voshon Lenard	76	76	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.46	-1	4	-5	16.5	17.9	-1.40	15.4	18.6	-3.25
Jamal Mashburn	63	63	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.32	3	0	3	16.3	17.6	-1.25	16.6	14.1	2.49
Ike Austin	60	61	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.07	11	-8	19	16.4	17.4	-1.06	16.3	14.9	1.33
Tim Hardaway	64	64	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.33	2	1	1	16.7	16.7	-0.06	16.5	14.1	2.45
Terry Mills	42	43	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.19	-1	4	-5	17.2	16.2	1.02	15.3	16.4	-1.09
Mark Strickland	32	33	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.21	-3	6	-9	17.9	16.0	1.94	12.8	17.6	-4.85
Eric Murdock	24	25	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	2	-1	16.7	16.7	0.06	14.1	16.5	-2.45
Keith Askins	15	17	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.00	-1	4	-5	18.1	16.4	1.72	18.0	15.3	2.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.58,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.87,0.85,0.78,0.89,0.92,0.95,0.92,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.91,0.89,0.96,0.97,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 91, LAC 107	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.84,0.86,0.75,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.87,0.93,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
UTA 80, HOU 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.61,0.69,0.7,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.81,0.93,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.92,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
HOU 85, MEM 102	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.66,0.72,0.76,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.79,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.97,1,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.3%