NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	78		Excitement	6.6 [452]		MVP	Mark Strickland (MIA): +6.3%
Indiana Pacers	82		Comeback	1.0 [883]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): -35.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Strickland	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	5	83%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
P.J. Brown	0.00	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,0,0	0.01	0.01	0.01	18	54%	0.08	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Todd Day	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Askins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	1	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	5	60%	0.03
Eric Murdock	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	12	40%	-0.04	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.03
Voshon Lenard	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16	-0.06	-0.08	0.02	14	47%	-0.12	2	-0.04	6	33%	-0.09
Terry Mills	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17	-0.13	-0.06	-0.02	4	0%	-0.04	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.35	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.35	-0.18	-0.19	-0.01	17	33%	-0.23	5	-0.13	2	100%	0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rik Smits	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04	0.04	-0.05	0.05	-0.04	16	47%	0.09	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.05
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Mark Pope	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Miller	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	15	57%	0.03	2	-0.03	7	100%	0.05
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	5	45%	-0.00	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	3	0%	-0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1	-0.10	-0.12	0.00	-0.02	6	50%	-0.01	5	-0.09	8	62%	-0.05
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.04	-0.02	5	44%	-0.03	3	-0.10	8	75%	0.01
Chris Mullin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14	-0.14	-0.04	-0.10	0.00	11	55%	-0.03	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.8	21.1	14.8	27.3	2.3	42.0	133.4
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +39.6%

IND +11.9%

IND +1.7%

MIA -4.3%

IND +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	15.6	15.7	15.6	84.8	89.1	102.5
season	15.8	16.0		104.7	105.3
opponent	16.1	16.2		99.2	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.5	15.0	16.5	16.5	15.6
IND	14.3	17.7	15.5	15.5	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Todd Day	11	10	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.01	3	-7	10	14.3	15.8	-1.49	13.7	16.0	-2.26
Mark Strickland	27	26	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-4	4	15.0	15.8	-0.83	16.3	15.5	0.88
Eric Murdock	33	35	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.29	7	-11	18	16.7	15.0	1.68	15.7	15.7	0.04
Keith Askins	32	33	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.18	1	-5	6	16.8	14.9	1.93	14.7	16.3	-1.64
Ike Austin	61	61	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.34	4	-8	12	15.8	15.2	0.64	15.9	15.4	0.45
P.J. Brown	78	77	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.28	-1	-3	2	15.8	14.3	1.53	15.5	17.0	-1.53
Terry Mills	28	29	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.15	-7	3	-10	15.1	15.8	-0.74	15.2	16.0	-0.75
Tim Hardaway	80	77	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.36	-1	-3	2	15.6	15.3	0.29	15.7	15.9	-0.18
Jamal Mashburn	59	59	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.12	-11	7	-18	15.3	16.2	-0.93	16.9	13.6	3.34
Voshon Lenard	51	53	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.12	-15	11	-26	14.7	16.7	-2.02	15.6	15.9	-0.27

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Mullin	58	58	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.16	16	-12	28	14.1	18.5	-4.46	16.9	13.4	3.54
Dale Davis	55	55	0.61	-0.11	0.72	-0.04	22	-18	40	14.2	18.0	-3.86	15.3	16.1	-0.78
Reggie Miller	73	74	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.30	10	-6	16	14.4	20.7	-6.33	16.0	13.7	2.32
Mark Jackson	74	75	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.25	7	-3	10	14.8	19.5	-4.70	15.8	14.5	1.30
Rik Smits	72	73	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.38	0	4	-4	16.5	12.7	3.79	15.9	14.3	1.60
Travis Best	18	17	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.13	-3	7	-10	19.5	14.8	4.70	14.5	15.8	-1.30
Antonio Davis	57	56	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.42	-14	18	-32	16.2	15.0	1.20	15.5	15.8	-0.31
Mark Pope	0	1	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	3	-2	0.0	15.7	-15.72	0.0	15.8	-15.76
Fred Hoiberg	19	18	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.08	-6	10	-16	20.7	14.4	6.33	13.7	16.0	-2.32
Jalen Rose	34	33	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.25	-13	17	-30	18.5	14.1	4.46	13.8	16.6	-2.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.7,0.71,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.82,0.8,0.89,0.93,0.88,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.98,0.94,0.96,0.83,0.75,0.71,0.76,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 101, SAC 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.55,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.77,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.62,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.71,0.84,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.79,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.76,0.84,1	93.1%
LAL 105, SAS 108	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.75,0.79,0.69,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.87,0.83,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.84,0.84,0.84,1	92.8%
DEN 113, WAS 119	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.56,0.6,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.58,0.63,0.72,0.83,0.87,0.79,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.92,0.93,0.87,0.76,0.9,0.76,0.85,0.78,0.84,1	92.8%