NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	92		Excitement	4.8 [834]		MVP	Michael Finley (DAL): +10.2%
Minnesota Timberwolves	77		Comeback	1.6 [175]		LVP	Tom Gugliotta (MIN): -16.8%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.02	-0.02	14	63%	0.10	2	0.00	2	100%	0.01
A.C. Green	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.01	8	70%	0.09	1	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Shawn Bradley	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.05	0.00	15	55%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Martin Muursepp	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Danilovic	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.01	-0.03	13	53%	0.04	1	-0.00	6	100%	0.02
Stacey King	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Harper	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	8	56%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Robert Pack	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.02	-0.02	9	27%	-0.09	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.02

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	13	53%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	8	52%	0.01	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Shane Heal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	0.00	0.04	4	70%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Cherokee Parks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Terry Porter	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	6	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	9	42%	-0.03	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
James Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	9	39%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.02	-0.04	13	48%	0.05	5	-0.13	3	100%	0.02
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.14	-0.04	-0.01	11	36%	-0.07	4	-0.10	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	0.8	29.1	15.7	26.2	2.5	23.2	121.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +22.2%

DAL +9.2%

DAL +1.9%

DAL +19.0%

MIN -2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIN	NBA	DAL	MIN	NBA
this game	18.0	16.7	15.6	109.5	93.9	104.4
season	15.9	15.5		99.1	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.7		105.3	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.2	19.8	18.4	18.7	18.0
MIN	20.0	15.4	15.0	16.4	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Bradley	54	54	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.15	11	4	7	17.6	18.6	-0.99	18.1	13.9	4.18
Michael Finley	80	79	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.03	14	1	13	18.0	17.7	0.26	16.6	19.7	-3.10
A.C. Green	73	70	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.12	10	5	5	18.0	17.7	0.31	16.6	16.9	-0.27
Robert Pack	54	53	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.10	7	8	-1	16.5	20.7	-4.15	16.5	17.0	-0.49
Sasha Danilovic	52	51	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.02	11	4	7	17.5	18.7	-1.21	16.2	17.5	-1.39
Derek Harper	42	41	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.02	11	4	7	19.0	17.0	2.10	16.0	17.3	-1.32
Erick Strickland	27	25	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.05	3	12	-9	19.2	17.4	1.75	18.4	15.9	2.53
Martin Muursepp	12	12	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	11	-7	18.1	18.0	0.10	16.9	16.6	0.27
Stacey King	26	25	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.09	4	11	-7	19.6	17.3	2.34	14.7	17.5	-2.82

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Heal	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-15	15	7.3	17.0	-9.70	12.2	18.3	-6.04
Cherokee Parks	25	27	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.10	1	-16	17	17.6	16.3	1.32	19.7	17.2	2.46
Terry Porter	53	55	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.02	-3	-12	9	16.3	17.4	-1.08	17.2	19.6	-2.37
Reggie Jordan	16	19	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	-11	7	16.3	16.8	-0.46	18.1	18.0	0.14
James Robinson	41	42	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.06	-6	-9	3	15.3	18.1	-2.83	18.3	17.7	0.52
Dean Garrett	44	45	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.01	-10	-5	-5	17.7	15.4	2.30	17.3	18.8	-1.58
Kevin Garnett	68	70	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.08	-9	-6	-3	16.5	17.5	-0.99	18.0	18.0	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	56	56	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.00	-13	-2	-11	17.5	15.0	2.46	17.4	19.2	-1.82
Sam Mitchell	39	40	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.01	-14	-1	-13	17.0	16.4	0.65	20.2	16.0	4.30
Stephon Marbury	65	62	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.04	-17	2	-19	16.6	16.9	-0.25	17.8	18.6	-0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.41,0.33,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.14,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 101, ATL 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.35,0.25,0.35,0.28,0.25,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.14,0.08,0.14,0.25,0.19,0.22,0.29,0.2,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.15,0,0	94.6%
MIA 108, TOR 102	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.33,0.26,0.28,0.33,0.24,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.23,0.16,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.01,0,0.01,0	94.5%
DET 86, PHI 78	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.12,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.02,0,0	94.4%