NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	108		Excitement	5.0 [820]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +30.6%
Toronto Raptors	102		Comeback	1.4 [692]		LVP	Jose Calderon (TOR): -10.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.31	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.31	0.17	0.09	-0.04	23	79%	0.48	8	-0.17	7	71%	-0.01
Chris Quinn	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.01	-0.00	5	83%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Beasley	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.02	7	67%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Dorell Wright	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jamario Moon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	10	43%	0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Mario Chalmers	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	6	71%	0.06	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	13	31%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	9	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.15	0.02	-0.01	23	61%	0.19	0	0.00	10	70%	-0.00
Anthony Parker	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	0.00	0.02	11	62%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	0.00	0.06	5	100%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.05	-0.02	0.03	18	61%	0.07	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Marion	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	10	50%	0.00	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roko Leni Ukic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Pops Mensah-Bonsu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	6	23%	-0.05	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.0	3.4	28.4	18.7	28.1	3.3	29.7	140.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +36.6%

MIA +4.9%

MIA +11.8%

TOR -1.7%

TOR -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	16.5	15.0	15.5	117.4	112.1	106.4
season	16.0	15.1		105.9	105.0
opponent	15.6	15.7		108.0	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.3	15.0	16.5	19.3	16.5
TOR	15.3	16.4	14.8	13.4	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	76	76	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.29	6	0	6	16.0	18.7	-2.74	15.1	14.5	0.61
Udonis Haslem	54	54	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.15	9	-3	12	16.4	16.6	-0.24	14.6	15.5	-0.81
Daequan Cook	63	62	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.34	2	4	-2	17.0	15.5	1.47	14.3	16.4	-2.06
Mario Chalmers	58	57	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.20	5	1	4	16.3	16.8	-0.53	15.3	14.4	0.86
Jermaine O'Neal	51	49	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.05	9	-3	12	16.7	16.2	0.44	16.3	13.5	2.79
Jamario Moon	56	56	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.13	3	3	0	15.8	17.6	-1.75	15.4	14.3	1.08
Chris Quinn	18	17	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.01	4	2	2	17.3	16.3	1.05	15.5	14.9	0.61
Dorell Wright	12	12	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.03	3	3	0	16.0	16.6	-0.56	14.3	15.1	-0.74
Michael Beasley	45	46	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.34	-9	15	-24	17.8	15.2	2.61	13.7	16.3	-2.59
Joel Anthony	27	26	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.09	-2	8	-10	15.9	16.8	-0.90	15.2	14.9	0.25

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pops Mensah-Bonsu	27	28	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.14	6	-12	18	14.0	15.4	-1.34	18.7	15.5	3.25
Roko Leni Ukic	7	8	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.04	-1	-5	4	13.0	15.1	-2.14	18.6	16.3	2.34
Marcus Banks	5	5	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-3	0	19.4	14.7	4.68	13.2	16.7	-3.48
Shawn Marion	68	70	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.40	7	-13	20	14.9	15.3	-0.38	16.0	18.2	-2.22
Jason Kapono	47	46	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.31	3	-9	12	13.9	16.2	-2.29	17.1	15.9	1.24
Anthony Parker	69	69	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.25	0	-6	6	14.6	16.2	-1.59	16.3	17.0	-0.74
Joey Graham	21	22	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.02	-8	2	-10	15.0	15.0	-0.03	18.4	15.9	2.46
Chris Bosh	75	76	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.22	-8	2	-10	15.1	14.2	0.88	16.3	17.3	-1.00
Jose Calderon	58	57	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.02	-16	10	-26	16.2	12.9	3.29	16.0	17.3	-1.38
Andrea Bargnani	78	79	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.25	-10	4	-14	15.3	13.3	1.95	16.0	19.6	-3.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.33,0.26,0.28,0.33,0.24,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.23,0.16,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.01,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 100, CHI 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%
VAN 92, GSW 79	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.21,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.03,0,0.01,0,0,0	94.7%
DAL 92, MIN 77	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.41,0.33,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.14,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%