NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	101		Excitement	6.5 [531]		MVP	Shelvin Mack (ATL): +13.5%
Atlanta Hawks	92		Comeback	1.2 [930]		LVP	Al Horford (ATL): -13.7%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Jackson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.03	-0.04	10	59%	0.15	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Nick Collison	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	3	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	1	100%	0.06	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.02
Serge Ibaka	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	14	54%	0.08	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.01
Andre Roberson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	9	61%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	21	53%	0.07	5	-0.14	15	73%	-0.03
Derek Fisher	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.2,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.13,-0.13	-0.18	0.04	-0.01	21	32%	-0.04	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shelvin Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.13	0.02	0.02	9	94%	0.20	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	18	48%	0.07	1	-0.03	12	92%	0.06
Louis Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	6	67%	0.11	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Cartier Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	15	46%	0.07	4	-0.10	7	100%	0.04
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	10	41%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	10	32%	-0.06	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Al Horford	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.03	0.01	10	32%	-0.10	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.7	33.5	15.7	29.0	1.8	32.2	137.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +40.7%

ATL -10.0%

OKC +17.1%

ATL -2.1%

OKC +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	ATL	NBA	OKC	ATL	NBA
this game	14.1	13.8	15.1	97.1	89.3	105.2
season	14.4	14.8		107.8	103.8
opponent	15.3	15.4		104.7	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	16.1	11.1	14.6	14.8	14.1
ATL	15.9	14.1	11.6	13.9	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	78	79	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.20	17	-8	25	14.1	14.1	-0.03	14.4	11.8	2.52
Serge Ibaka	69	68	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.29	5	4	1	14.4	13.3	1.16	14.1	13.2	0.90
Russell Westbrook	74	73	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.18	8	1	7	14.2	13.6	0.60	14.5	11.9	2.68
Reggie Jackson	69	67	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.20	5	4	1	13.2	15.7	-2.45	13.1	15.0	-1.94
Kendrick Perkins	51	49	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.08	6	3	3	14.7	13.4	1.35	14.5	13.1	1.42
Nick Collison	44	45	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.09	2	7	-5	14.5	13.7	0.81	14.3	13.4	0.89
Jeremy Lamb	49	49	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.01	5	4	1	13.2	14.8	-1.54	13.0	14.5	-1.54
Derek Fisher	33	34	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.02	3	6	-3	13.1	14.5	-1.42	12.9	14.2	-1.23
Andre Roberson	26	24	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.09	-3	12	-15	15.5	13.6	1.87	14.1	13.7	0.47
Steven Adams	27	27	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.03	-3	12	-15	14.0	14.1	-0.13	10.9	14.8	-3.95

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shelvin Mack	40	43	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.17	8	-17	25	12.4	14.6	-2.19	14.9	13.5	1.37
Elton Brand	37	36	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.08	5	-14	19	11.3	15.2	-3.90	13.2	14.5	-1.36
Paul Millsap	79	81	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.26	7	-16	23	13.0	16.3	-3.35	14.9	11.2	3.65
Cartier Martin	14	13	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-7	5	9.9	14.4	-4.52	13.0	14.2	-1.21
Louis Williams	44	45	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	-4	-1	13.4	14.1	-0.66	12.8	15.0	-2.18
Jeff Teague	77	76	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.18	-7	-2	-5	13.7	14.0	-0.36	14.5	12.8	1.74
DeMarre Carroll	57	56	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.01	-14	5	-19	15.5	11.6	3.94	13.7	14.5	-0.82
Mike Scott	24	23	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.02	-16	7	-23	16.3	13.0	3.35	11.2	14.9	-3.65
Kyle Korver	77	80	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.23	-8	-1	-7	14.2	12.5	1.64	14.1	13.7	0.40
Al Horford	66	67	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.17	-13	4	-17	15.2	11.3	3.90	14.7	12.8	1.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.35,0.25,0.35,0.28,0.25,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.14,0.08,0.14,0.25,0.19,0.22,0.29,0.2,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.15,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 92, MIN 77	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.41,0.33,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.14,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%
MEM 103, LAC 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.21,0.16,0.23,0.22,0.12,0.2,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.16,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.01,0	94.3%
MEM 102, POR 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.58,0.5,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.32,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.07,0.11,0.18,0.13,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0	93.9%