NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	103		Excitement	4.6 [863]		MVP	Donyell Marshall (GSW): +19.6%
Golden State Warriors	120		Comeback	1.4 [1115]		LVP	Avery Johnson (SAS): -15.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dominique Wilkins	0.11	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.01	0.02	15	74%	0.15	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Vinny Del Negro	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.12	0.00	0.03	12	83%	0.12	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.07	6	60%	0.05	3	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Greg Anderson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamie Feick	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	4	20%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Vernon Maxwell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	15	50%	0.01	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Charles Smith	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	8	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.04	-0.02	13	50%	-0.03	5	-0.10	6	33%	-0.08
Avery Johnson	-0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.10	-0.06	0.00	7	33%	-0.09	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.17	0.03	0.00	16	77%	0.21	1	-0.01	7	57%	-0.02
Chris Mullin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.14	0.01	0.02	10	92%	0.18	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Mark Price	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	8	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Felton Spencer	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ray Owes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Todd Fuller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	3	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Booker	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4	87%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	0.01	14	58%	0.03	1	-0.03	5	40%	-0.04
Joe Smith	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	16	51%	-0.01	1	-0.01	5	100%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	-0.01	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	1.7	25.1	14.8	24.0	1.8	25.1	116.1
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +32.7%

GSW +7.6%

SAS -2.1%

GSW +10.4%

GSW +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	GSW	NBA	SAS	GSW	NBA
this game	15.6	14.7	15.6	109.6	125.0	104.4
season	16.8	15.0		100.8	104.4
opponent	15.4	15.4		109.1	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.4	14.5	16.3	16.3	15.6
GSW	14.6	15.5	14.3	14.4	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Perdue	37	38	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.07	6	-23	29	13.8	16.8	-3.03	16.1	13.9	2.19
Cory Alexander	51	51	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-21	25	14.3	17.2	-2.93	15.8	13.6	2.21
Vernon Maxwell	48	50	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.09	2	-19	21	15.0	16.2	-1.26	15.4	14.0	1.44
Jamie Feick	45	45	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.07	-5	-12	7	14.4	16.7	-2.38	14.9	14.6	0.34
Dominique Wilkins	50	52	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.04	-10	-7	-3	15.9	15.2	0.69	14.8	14.7	0.09
Charles Smith	29	30	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.13	-5	-12	7	17.6	14.7	2.93	14.6	14.8	-0.19
Monty Williams	63	64	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.08	-16	-1	-15	15.5	15.9	-0.41	14.7	14.8	-0.08
Vinny Del Negro	46	46	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.09	-19	2	-21	16.2	15.0	1.26	14.0	15.4	-1.44
Avery Johnson	43	45	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	0.05	-21	4	-25	17.2	14.3	2.93	13.6	15.8	-2.21
Greg Anderson	58	59	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	0.01	-21	4	-25	16.6	14.0	2.59	13.8	16.2	-2.42

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Latrell Sprewell	84	82	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.05	17	0	17	14.7	15.0	-0.31	15.7	15.2	0.49
Donyell Marshall	71	68	0.43	0.07	0.37	-0.01	15	2	13	14.3	15.8	-1.50	16.2	14.1	2.05
Mark Price	54	51	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.06	16	1	15	14.5	15.0	-0.57	16.2	14.9	1.27
Joe Smith	71	68	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.08	10	7	3	14.8	14.4	0.45	16.0	14.5	1.51
Felton Spencer	48	46	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.08	10	7	3	15.1	14.4	0.67	16.8	14.4	2.45
Chris Mullin	48	49	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.11	10	7	3	15.2	14.3	0.87	15.2	16.0	-0.78
Andrew DeClercq	44	45	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.08	5	12	-7	14.7	14.7	0.04	14.2	16.9	-2.63
Todd Fuller	11	11	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.11	-3	20	-23	15.1	14.7	0.41	9.4	16.4	-7.06
Ray Owes	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	19	-21	14.0	14.8	-0.79	13.4	15.8	-2.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.56,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.64,0.59,0.73,0.65,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.82,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 78, NJN 95	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.9,0.91,0.87,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
LAL 104, MIN 119	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.71,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.73,0.7,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.75,0.9,0.87,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1	95.1%
CHA 89, CHI 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.59,0.61,0.7,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.81,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.9%