NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	101		Excitement	7.1 [394]		MVP	Bryant Reeves (VAN): +13.5%
Vancouver Grizzlies	108		Comeback	1.4 [586]		LVP	LaPhonso Ellis (DEN): -32.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tom Hammonds	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.02	18	66%	0.11	4	-0.10	8	87%	0.01
Dale Ellis	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	22	51%	0.01	0	0.00	7	100%	0.05
Jerome Allen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.05	3	-0.12	5	60%	-0.02
Brooks Thompson	-0.09	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	8	33%	-0.09	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kenny Smith	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.06	-0.10	-0.01	11	35%	-0.16	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.03
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.33	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.33,-0.33	-0.14	-0.19	-0.00	21	42%	-0.21	4	-0.12	6	67%	-0.06

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryant Reeves	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.05	0.01	24	60%	0.15	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.01	0.00	7	87%	0.14	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Chris Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	2	83%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Roy Rogers	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pete Chilcutt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.07	0.02	12	54%	-0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Lee Mayberry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	4	37%	0.00	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.15,-0.11,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	19	53%	0.03	4	-0.12	7	86%	0.03
Greg Anthony	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	12	32%	-0.11	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.6	2.4	23.5	14.6	25.1	2.5	35.3	125.1
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

VAN +47.3%

DEN -6.4%

VAN +11.4%

DEN -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	VAN	NBA	DEN	VAN	NBA
this game	15.8	15.4	15.6	109.8	116.1	104.4
season	15.2	16.3		102.3	97.9
opponent	15.5	15.3		109.2	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.5	16.1	16.2	16.3	15.8
VAN	16.2	14.6	15.8	15.0	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Allen	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-5	3	7.0	15.8	-8.85	4.0	15.5	-11.51
Ervin Johnson	71	71	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.36	7	-14	21	16.6	12.9	3.75	16.3	12.4	3.96
Antonio McDyess	62	61	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.04	-6	-1	-5	15.5	16.2	-0.62	16.5	13.3	3.12
Tom Hammonds	25	27	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.04	-14	7	-21	13.5	16.6	-3.12	13.8	16.0	-2.22
Brooks Thompson	70	69	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.24	-5	-2	-3	15.7	16.0	-0.39	14.7	17.5	-2.79
Kenny Smith	56	57	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.24	-7	0	-7	15.8	15.7	0.05	15.1	15.8	-0.68
Dale Ellis	87	89	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.31	-5	-2	-3	15.9	12.8	3.12	15.2	18.7	-3.51
LaPhonso Ellis	88	90	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.38	-3	-4	1	15.8	13.7	2.09	15.4	15.3	0.06

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	79	78	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.21	14	-7	21	15.0	17.7	-2.74	15.6	16.4	-0.80
Bryant Reeves	81	80	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.35	7	0	7	15.3	16.1	-0.80	15.2	19.5	-4.31
Anthony Peeler	75	74	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.31	4	3	1	15.1	16.6	-1.45	15.6	16.5	-0.93
Lee Mayberry	45	46	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.03	9	-2	11	17.6	13.4	4.20	16.0	15.5	0.46
Aaron Williams	41	41	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.12	5	2	3	17.2	14.0	3.19	16.6	15.1	1.55
Chris Robinson	33	33	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.12	5	2	3	14.0	16.2	-2.20	15.8	15.7	0.06
Greg Anthony	48	46	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.26	-2	9	-11	13.4	17.6	-4.20	15.5	16.0	-0.46
Pete Chilcutt	19	19	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.04	-3	10	-13	17.0	15.0	2.03	15.6	15.8	-0.22
Roy Rogers	44	43	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.02	-4	11	-15	15.5	15.3	0.21	16.6	15.0	1.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.81,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.82,0.72,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.87,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.86,0.77,0.6,0.76,0.78,0.86,0.79,0.76,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 79, SAS 84	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.82,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.69,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.72,0.85,0.85,1	93.6%
GSW 108, CLE 114	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.72,0.72,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.82,0.78,0.76,0.86,0.92,0.83,0.81,0.88,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.81,0.79,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.88,0.93,0.64,0.85,0.96,1	93.3%
NOH 96, SAC 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.79,0.76,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.8,0.73,0.79,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.88,0.86,0.77,1	93.1%