NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	108		Excitement	6.7 [459]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +20.2%
Cleveland Cavaliers	114		Comeback	1.4 [1273]		LVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): -12.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Morrow	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.21,0.13,0.15,0.15	0.14	0.02	0.01	10	82%	0.19	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Mikki Moore	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	0.00	6	83%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06	0.04	-0.00	-0.03	10	67%	0.12	3	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
Anthony Randolph	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	0.00	11	45%	0.04	1	-0.03	7	71%	-0.01
Vladimir Radmanovic	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	12	46%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.06,-0.07	-0.02	-0.07	-0.01	16	47%	0.03	3	-0.10	8	75%	0.01
Monta Ellis	-0.13	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.14,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.05	0.01	23	46%	-0.00	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.03

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2	0.20	0.14	0.06	-0.01	19	65%	0.25	2	-0.05	10	80%	0.01
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.15	0.04	0.02	9	95%	0.21	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.02
Daniel Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.06	-0.01	8	81%	0.17	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.10	0.00	14	57%	0.17	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	12	58%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jamario Moon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	8	53%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Darnell Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.02	-0.00	3	62%	0.07	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.0	28.1	15.7	24.1	2.5	32.5	131.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +57.4%

GSW -9.6%

GSW -10.2%

CLE +6.9%

CLE +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	CLE	NBA	GSW	CLE	NBA
this game	13.8	15.9	15.3	111.3	117.5	106.0
season	13.4	16.1		106.5	109.5
opponent	15.0	14.8		103.3	110.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.5	13.9	14.7	12.0	13.8
CLE	14.9	16.1	16.0	16.8	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mikki Moore	54	53	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.18	3	-9	12	14.0	13.5	0.45	16.4	15.3	1.12
Anthony Morrow	72	71	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.30	1	-7	8	13.6	14.3	-0.70	15.8	16.3	-0.57
Vladimir Radmanovic	68	69	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.17	-6	0	-6	13.3	14.8	-1.42	16.4	14.7	1.71
Anthony Randolph	50	50	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.10	-9	3	-12	14.4	13.0	1.40	15.2	16.7	-1.54
Stephen Curry	85	85	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.33	-4	-2	-2	13.6	15.2	-1.60	15.7	17.3	-1.60
Corey Maggette	64	64	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.24	-7	1	-8	14.1	13.1	1.06	16.1	15.6	0.53
Monta Ellis	92	93	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.29	-8	2	-10	13.7	15.6	-1.94	15.8	17.7	-1.90

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	78	78	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.27	8	-2	10	15.3	18.5	-3.17	13.8	13.6	0.23
Anthony Parker	60	61	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.29	5	1	4	14.9	17.6	-2.74	13.8	13.7	0.06
Daniel Gibson	66	65	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.29	3	3	0	16.4	15.0	1.41	14.1	13.2	0.91
JJ Hickson	70	69	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.21	4	2	2	15.7	16.4	-0.72	13.5	14.5	-0.99
Mo Williams	72	71	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.30	0	6	-6	16.4	14.6	1.79	13.0	15.8	-2.85
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	55	55	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	2	2	17.0	14.5	2.48	13.7	13.9	-0.25
Darnell Jackson	27	28	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.11	2	4	-2	16.4	15.7	0.72	14.5	13.5	0.99
Jamario Moon	29	30	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.01	5	1	4	16.7	15.6	1.14	14.3	13.5	0.83
Delonte West	28	28	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.07	-1	7	-8	14.7	16.4	-1.71	14.4	13.5	0.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.72,0.72,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.82,0.78,0.76,0.86,0.92,0.83,0.81,0.88,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.81,0.79,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.88,0.93,0.64,0.85,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 65, NJN 79	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.7,0.77,0.83,0.86,0.82,0.82,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.71,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.81,0.88,0.85,0.74,0.79,0.67,0.77,0.79,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.85,1,1,1	93.9%
DET 73, IND 82	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.75,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.87,0.81,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.86,0.81,0.84,0.81,0.93,0.94,0.98,1	93.5%
GSW 103, BOS 107	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.83,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.91,0.89,0.89,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.81,0.64,0.76,0.96,1	93.4%