NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	117		Excitement	6.6 [476]		MVP	Todd Day (BOS): +14.1%
Boston Celtics	126		Comeback	2.9 [257]		LVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): -20.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Armen Gilliam	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.02	-0.01	13	62%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.00	18	67%	0.17	3	-0.09	6	67%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.02	-0.00	14	62%	0.09	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
David Wood	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Wolf	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Carruth	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Chucky Brown	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	1	83%	-0.00	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Vin Baker	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.01,0.03,0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.05	-0.01	13	69%	0.12	4	-0.14	10	90%	0.03
Elliot Perry	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Sherman Douglas	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	9	35%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Johnny Newman	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	5	42%	-0.14	1	-0.02	9	44%	-0.08

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Todd Day	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.05	0.00	11	68%	0.14	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Eric Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.05	-0.01	10	74%	0.14	1	-0.01	14	93%	0.07
Marty Conlon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.03	0.01	7	75%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.11	-0.01	0.02	13	75%	0.15	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.00
Brett Szabo	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.02	4	100%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Alton Lister	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Hawkins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey King	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.13,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.02	-0.01	10	54%	0.09	4	-0.14	8	87%	0.06
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.13,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.13	-0.06	0.02	20	46%	-0.07	4	-0.13	12	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.7	26.3	14.8	26.1	1.6	39.0	135.5
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +13.4%

BOS +27.2%

BOS +9.3%

BOS +1.5%

MIL -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	BOS	NBA	MIL	BOS	NBA
this game	14.7	14.7	15.6	119.4	128.6	104.4
season	16.0	14.8		103.9	101.8
opponent	14.7	15.5		109.5	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.5	15.8	14.7	13.7	14.7
BOS	16.1	13.6	15.3	14.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Wolf	9	9	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.06	5	-14	19	17.2	14.4	2.82	16.3	14.6	1.77
Jimmy Carruth	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-10	11	8.5	14.8	-6.29	11.5	14.8	-3.29
David Wood	5	5	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.00	-1	-8	7	8.2	15.0	-6.81	15.6	14.7	0.92
Elliot Perry	26	25	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-9	9	16.2	14.1	2.08	14.8	14.7	0.05
Armen Gilliam	58	59	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.10	-1	-8	7	15.1	14.1	0.99	15.0	14.3	0.69
Vin Baker	82	82	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	-5	1	14.5	15.6	-1.15	14.5	16.1	-1.67
Johnny Newman	47	48	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.17	-5	-4	-1	14.2	15.1	-0.87	14.1	15.3	-1.17
Ray Allen	70	69	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.22	-4	-5	1	14.5	15.0	-0.52	15.0	14.1	0.83
Glenn Robinson	74	75	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.13	-8	-1	-7	15.5	12.0	3.53	14.9	14.1	0.78
Sherman Douglas	72	73	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.17	-9	0	-9	14.1	16.2	-2.08	14.7	14.8	-0.05
Chucky Brown	45	43	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.18	-19	10	-29	14.2	15.0	-0.77	14.5	14.9	-0.34

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marty Conlon	62	62	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.11	21	-12	33	14.7	14.7	0.00	15.4	13.4	1.97
Todd Day	54	53	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.17	18	-9	27	14.3	15.2	-0.95	15.0	14.3	0.73
Alton Lister	23	24	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.08	12	-3	15	14.0	14.9	-0.89	16.0	14.2	1.83
David Wesley	74	75	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.07	12	-3	15	14.9	14.0	0.90	14.9	14.0	0.87
Antoine Walker	78	79	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.22	1	8	-7	14.5	15.4	-0.91	14.6	14.9	-0.35
Eric Williams	56	56	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.27	-1	10	-11	14.6	14.9	-0.36	14.5	14.9	-0.46
Michael Hawkins	10	10	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.15	-3	12	-15	13.0	14.9	-1.92	12.4	14.9	-2.52
Dee Brown	12	12	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	9	-9	14.4	14.8	-0.35	13.2	14.9	-1.71
Rick Fox	70	68	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	12	-15	15.1	13.7	1.41	13.9	16.5	-2.60
Stacey King	8	9	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.01	-2	11	-13	14.6	14.7	-0.11	19.0	14.2	4.78
Brett Szabo	43	42	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.06	-10	19	-29	15.6	14.0	1.61	13.7	15.4	-1.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.5,0.57,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.44,0.55,0.64,0.74,0.9,0.79,0.86,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.97,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 96, IND 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.41,0.5,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.48,0.56,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.82,0.83,0.91,0.94,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.2%
DEN 98, ORL 109	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.59,0.7,0.68,0.78,0.74,0.82,0.83,0.73,0.86,0.96,0.97,1,0.99,1,1,1	92.9%
GSW 81, MIN 91	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.41,0.4,0.49,0.55,0.64,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.67,0.83,0.79,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.9,0.95,1,1,1	92.9%