NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	98		Excitement	6.3 [517]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (ORL): +28.3%
Orlando Magic	109		Comeback	2.1 [679]		LVP	Allen Iverson (DEN): -11.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.07	0.04	-0.04	19	62%	0.28	4	-0.12	14	79%	0.07
J.R. Smith	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.03,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.08	0.04	0.05	11	67%	0.10	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.01
Kenyon Martin	0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.00	13	61%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Eduardo Najera	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Camby	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	16	47%	0.03	4	-0.14	13	85%	-0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.22,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.18	0.09	-0.02	14	76%	0.32	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Brian Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.06	0.00	9	100%	0.26	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	17	51%	0.02	4	-0.07	1	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	7	14%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	15	42%	-0.02	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	9	40%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	0.02	13	57%	0.05	5	-0.14	14	50%	-0.06
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	8	12%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	2.4	29.4	15.5	29.4	2.4	31.6	137.3
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +17.0%

DEN -12.4%

ORL +31.9%

ORL +3.3%

ORL +10.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	ORL	NBA	DEN	ORL	NBA
this game	13.5	15.4	15.4	99.0	109.0	105.7
season	13.3	15.1		108.2	109.9
opponent	15.6	15.2		104.6	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.5	13.6	14.7	11.3	13.5
ORL	13.2	15.2	15.3	17.9	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Carter	48	47	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.02	1	-12	13	14.5	12.6	1.85	15.0	15.8	-0.78
Eduardo Najera	33	34	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.10	-5	-6	1	13.1	13.8	-0.64	15.1	15.5	-0.41
Carmelo Anthony	73	75	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	-6	1	13.9	12.6	1.31	15.3	15.6	-0.23
Marcus Camby	76	76	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.14	-6	-5	-1	13.9	12.2	1.73	15.0	16.6	-1.57
Linas Kleiza	57	59	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.12	-8	-3	-5	12.4	15.1	-2.69	15.4	15.4	-0.08
Kenyon Martin	75	75	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.08	-11	0	-11	13.8	12.6	1.22	15.7	14.6	1.05
Allen Iverson	90	91	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.19	-9	-2	-7	13.5	14.2	-0.74	15.4	15.3	0.06
J.R. Smith	43	43	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.14	-12	1	-13	12.7	14.2	-1.58	16.4	14.6	1.76

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashard Lewis	86	86	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.08	15	-4	19	15.1	17.3	-2.20	14.0	10.8	3.20
Keyon Dooling	58	56	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.20	10	1	9	16.9	13.3	3.63	13.1	14.1	-0.97
Keith Bogans	45	43	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.24	8	3	5	15.9	15.0	0.95	13.5	13.6	-0.06
Dwight Howard	87	86	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.19	7	4	3	15.5	14.5	0.98	13.4	14.5	-1.05
Hedo Turkoglu	52	53	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.10	8	3	5	15.7	15.1	0.63	12.9	14.3	-1.34
Jameer Nelson	69	70	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.02	6	5	1	15.1	16.1	-0.98	13.4	13.8	-0.35
Brian Cook	60	57	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.19	-1	12	-13	15.7	14.8	0.90	13.5	13.6	-0.17
Adonal Foyle	13	13	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.01	4	7	-3	14.5	15.5	-0.98	14.5	13.4	1.05
Maurice Evans	38	40	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.02	1	10	-9	13.3	16.7	-3.43	14.2	13.1	1.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.59,0.7,0.68,0.78,0.74,0.82,0.83,0.73,0.86,0.96,0.97,1,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 81, SAS 101	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.42,0.45,0.56,0.56,0.71,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.75,0.83,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.7%
LAC 81, ATL 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.56,0.59,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.81,0.74,0.7,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.3%
LAC 101, LAL 118	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.56,0.6,0.68,0.74,0.79,0.79,0.87,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.0%