NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Bullets	105		Excitement	7.1 [397]		MVP	Jaren Jackson (WAS): +11.0%
Milwaukee Bucks	96		Comeback	1.4 [789]		LVP	Vin Baker (MIL): -28.3%

Washington Bullets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaren Jackson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.06	-0.00	5	86%	0.16	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Gheorghe Muresan	0.05	0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.04	0.02	10	72%	0.13	3	-0.08	12	75%	0.01
Chris Whitney	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	7	56%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Rod Strickland	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.03	0.04	-0.03	5	43%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	0.03
Calbert Cheaney	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Harvey Grant	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	0.01	-0.07	0.04	12	87%	0.20	9	-0.30	6	83%	0.01
Tracy Murray	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.02	0.04	7	29%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.10	-0.06	0.01	20	47%	-0.03	4	-0.14	7	57%	-0.05

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	7	71%	0.11	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Sherman Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.00	7	64%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elliot Perry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.02	7	57%	0.14	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Joe Wolf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Armen Gilliam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	15	47%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Chucky Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	0.05	4	40%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.04
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	19	52%	0.02	3	-0.11	4	75%	0.01
Vin Baker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.22,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.15	-0.15	-0.01	16	54%	0.05	8	-0.34	7	43%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.7	28.2	15.4	26.8	1.8	33.5	132.7
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +8.2%

WAS +11.7%

WAS +36.7%

MIL -1.8%

MIL -4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIL	NBA	WAS	MIL	NBA
this game	14.9	16.2	15.6	111.7	105.5	104.4
season	14.8	16.0		104.3	103.9
opponent	15.5	15.8		106.0	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	15.9	14.1	13.5	16.6	14.9
MIL	16.1	15.3	15.9	17.7	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Bullets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Webber	84	81	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.19	17	-8	25	15.3	11.7	3.62	16.8	11.4	5.41
Juwan Howard	83	83	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.21	16	-7	23	14.8	15.6	-0.79	16.3	15.2	1.06
Gheorghe Muresan	67	64	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.21	14	-5	19	14.7	15.5	-0.82	17.2	14.0	3.16
Calbert Cheaney	41	41	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.03	14	-5	19	13.4	16.1	-2.66	16.5	16.0	0.49
Rod Strickland	20	19	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.16	5	4	1	16.3	14.6	1.73	17.4	15.9	1.52
Chris Whitney	67	65	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.03	9	0	9	14.5	16.0	-1.54	16.7	15.1	1.60
Jaren Jackson	37	35	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.26	-10	19	-29	16.1	14.2	1.89	14.5	17.3	-2.86
Tracy Murray	29	27	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.00	-7	16	-23	14.2	15.3	-1.05	14.4	17.0	-2.58
Harvey Grant	19	18	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.10	-13	22	-35	15.6	14.8	0.81	12.5	17.1	-4.64

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Wolf	34	34	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.12	7	-16	23	15.9	16.4	-0.44	16.1	14.2	1.90
Elliot Perry	49	50	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.22	3	-12	15	15.6	17.0	-1.40	15.7	14.1	1.55
Chucky Brown	36	37	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-9	9	16.1	16.3	-0.23	16.0	14.3	1.71
Johnny Newman	45	46	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.19	-2	-7	5	16.5	16.0	0.49	15.6	14.3	1.23
Ray Allen	58	61	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.00	-10	1	-11	15.3	17.9	-2.65	13.9	16.9	-3.09
Armen Gilliam	28	32	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.03	-13	4	-17	16.3	16.2	0.15	14.5	15.1	-0.61
Sherman Douglas	42	44	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.01	-12	3	-15	17.0	15.6	1.40	14.1	15.7	-1.55
Vin Baker	80	81	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.25	-8	-1	-7	16.5	14.3	2.21	14.7	16.3	-1.59
Glenn Robinson	83	85	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.24	-10	1	-11	16.6	11.9	4.76	14.8	16.2	-1.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.41,0.42,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.29,0.2,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.16,0.13,0.22,0.3,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.4,0.4,0.24,0.12,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 104, POR 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.36,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.23,0.18,0.3,0.22,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.22,0.25,0.11,0.03,0.02,0	92.9%
OKC 115, MIN 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.41,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.17,0.11,0.2,0.29,0.21,0.26,0.3,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.13,0.02,0.03,0,0	92.8%
UTA 90, POR 84	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.27,0.11,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.41,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.15,0.1,0.02,0	92.7%