NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	104		Excitement	7.1 [408]		MVP	Mo Williams (CLE): +19.4%
Portland Trail Blazers	98		Comeback	1.4 [654]		LVP	Travis Outlaw (POR): -9.7%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mo Williams	0.19	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.19	0.19	0.05	0.05	19	80%	0.29	4	-0.10	3	100%	0.01
LeBron James	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0,-0.03,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.12,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.09	0.07	0.04	0.02	30	53%	0.15	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Anderson Varejao	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	8	60%	0.10	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Ben Wallace	0.06	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Hickson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	62%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Darnell Jackson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	6	57%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Daniel Gibson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tarence Kinsey	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	6	50%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.08	0.00	3	83%	0.16	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.06
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	5	70%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	5	70%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Oden	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.03	0.00	4	83%	0.12	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	43%	0.03	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	9	50%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.01	-0.07	0.02	20	45%	-0.09	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.01
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.03	0.05	23	43%	-0.07	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	8	26%	-0.10	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	1.7	30.3	15.5	26.3	2.4	38.5	143.0
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +85.5%

POR -35.4%

CLE +12.3%

POR -16.2%

CLE +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	POR	NBA	CLE	POR	NBA
this game	16.9	16.7	15.5	120.9	115.3	106.4
season	16.9	16.7		110.6	111.0
opponent	16.0	15.2		105.8	101.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	16.0	15.0	21.5	16.0	16.9
POR	17.6	17.7	15.6	16.0	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Wallace	51	50	0.91	-0.41	1.31	0.32	20	-14	34	17.3	16.4	0.87	16.3	17.4	-1.07
LeBron James	75	73	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.32	14	-8	22	17.1	16.0	1.08	16.6	17.3	-0.69
Anderson Varejao	67	67	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.27	15	-9	24	17.3	15.8	1.48	17.4	14.4	2.98
Wally Szczerbiak	55	54	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.34	9	-3	12	16.0	18.5	-2.51	16.7	16.8	-0.15
Mo Williams	75	74	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.31	7	-1	8	16.9	17.5	-0.69	16.6	17.5	-0.92
Sasha Pavlovic	56	55	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.25	1	5	-4	17.3	16.3	1.04	15.8	18.4	-2.56
Tarence Kinsey	2	1	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	5	-4	9.5	17.1	-7.62	7.0	16.9	-9.86
Darnell Jackson	20	19	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.01	-7	13	-20	15.6	17.3	-1.68	15.3	17.2	-1.84
Daniel Gibson	20	21	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	0.06	-10	16	-26	18.6	16.4	2.23	18.0	16.3	1.74
JJ Hickson	21	22	-0.31	0.81	-1.13	0.10	-14	20	-34	17.3	16.8	0.45	18.7	16.1	2.62

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Outlaw	46	46	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.35	8	-14	22	16.3	17.3	-1.05	15.6	18.4	-2.82
Sergio Rodriguez	53	50	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.03	-3	-3	0	16.2	17.6	-1.37	16.1	18.2	-2.11
Rudy Fernandez	42	43	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.24	3	-9	12	17.2	16.3	0.89	16.2	17.7	-1.42
Jerryd Bayless	27	30	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.16	0	-6	6	18.1	16.1	2.01	19.7	15.5	4.24
Joel Przybilla	38	35	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.23	0	-6	6	17.5	16.1	1.37	18.1	16.2	1.88
Nicolas Batum	37	37	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.06	-10	4	-14	16.2	17.2	-1.03	17.6	16.5	1.10
Greg Oden	42	46	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	-1	-4	17.2	16.3	0.94	17.1	16.7	0.41
LaMarcus Aldridge	74	74	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.34	-9	3	-12	16.6	17.4	-0.71	16.8	17.7	-0.84
Brandon Roy	66	69	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.24	-14	8	-22	16.3	18.2	-1.82	16.8	17.5	-0.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.36,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.23,0.18,0.3,0.22,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.22,0.25,0.11,0.03,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 105, MIL 96	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.41,0.42,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.29,0.2,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.16,0.13,0.22,0.3,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.4,0.4,0.24,0.12,0.03,0,0	92.9%
MIA 123, WAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.36,0.48,0.46,0.36,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.31,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.16,0.21,0.29,0.18,0.22,0.34,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.04,0,0	92.7%
BOS 100, WAS 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.29,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.18,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.27,0.24,0.19,0.25,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.53,0.34,0.19,0.05,0.16,0.02,0	92.5%