NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	115		Excitement	7.2 [303]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +47.1%
Minnesota Timberwolves	110		Comeback	2.0 [832]		LVP	James Harden (OKC): -13.8%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.47	0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.47	0.25	0.21	-0.02	23	74%	0.54	4	-0.07	12	75%	-0.01
Russell Westbrook	0.18	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18	0.09	0.09	0.00	25	58%	0.27	3	-0.08	10	90%	0.06
Nick Collison	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.05	0.01	7	62%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Serge Ibaka	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.00	5	67%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	9	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	3	25%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
James Harden	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.04	-0.01	11	23%	-0.12	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.05	0.01	21	62%	0.19	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.05	0.00	2	60%	0.08	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Anthony Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.02	16	55%	0.12	2	-0.09	8	75%	-0.01
Wesley Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	6	53%	0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02	0.02	0.09	-0.04	0.03	16	67%	0.15	3	-0.13	4	75%	-0.01
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	5	54%	0.04	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nikola Pekovic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	12	42%	-0.01	2	-0.05	9	44%	-0.09
Derrick Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	2.5	29.4	15.5	25.0	1.8	40.2	141.0
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +2.0%

OKC +15.6%

OKC +21.5%

OKC +9.9%

OKC +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	MIN	NBA	OKC	MIN	NBA
this game	14.6	13.9	15.6	113.9	108.9	102.8
season	14.7	15.3		107.9	102.6
opponent	15.1	15.8		104.7	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.3	12.8	15.7	16.7	14.6
MIN	14.4	17.2	12.6	11.4	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Russell Westbrook	81	80	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.24	17	-12	29	14.5	15.3	-0.88	13.6	14.7	-1.06
Kendrick Perkins	59	60	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.30	15	-10	25	15.4	13.6	1.84	13.0	15.2	-2.23
Kevin Durant	73	72	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.27	14	-9	23	14.5	15.0	-0.44	14.1	13.3	0.74
Thabo Sefolosha	61	59	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.09	17	-12	29	14.4	15.0	-0.63	13.6	14.3	-0.75
Serge Ibaka	45	46	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.02	15	-10	25	14.3	14.9	-0.68	13.9	13.8	0.12
Derek Fisher	41	43	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.26	-11	16	-27	14.8	14.5	0.31	14.1	13.7	0.43
James Harden	65	65	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.45	-18	23	-41	15.4	13.2	2.17	12.8	15.8	-3.01
Daequan Cook	16	16	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.06	-8	13	-21	16.1	14.4	1.69	14.6	13.7	0.90
Nazr Mohammed	19	20	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.04	-8	13	-21	13.1	15.0	-1.89	16.9	13.1	3.78
Nick Collison	45	44	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.03	-8	13	-21	13.7	15.4	-1.64	15.2	12.8	2.36

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Tolliver	22	24	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.10	5	-10	15	14.1	13.8	0.34	15.5	14.4	1.07
Anthony Randolph	73	72	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.35	11	-16	27	13.5	14.7	-1.22	14.6	14.7	-0.11
Malcolm Lee	21	22	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-6	7	14.8	13.6	1.18	14.2	14.8	-0.53
Michael Beasley	84	84	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.39	8	-13	21	13.6	15.4	-1.78	14.6	15.1	-0.50
Wesley Johnson	35	38	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.00	-13	8	-21	14.9	13.3	1.64	15.0	14.4	0.61
Derrick Williams	26	26	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.04	-15	10	-25	15.3	13.4	1.88	14.0	14.9	-0.92
Jose Juan Barea	83	82	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.30	-4	-1	-3	13.7	14.6	-0.83	14.7	14.3	0.47
Martell Webster	79	76	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.29	-7	2	-9	13.8	14.1	-0.34	14.7	14.6	0.06
Nikola Pekovic	82	81	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.31	-11	6	-17	13.5	15.5	-2.04	14.6	14.9	-0.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.41,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.17,0.11,0.2,0.29,0.21,0.26,0.3,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.13,0.02,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 105, MIL 96	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.41,0.42,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.29,0.2,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.16,0.13,0.22,0.3,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.4,0.4,0.24,0.12,0.03,0,0	92.8%
CHA 92, WAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.33,0.39,0.49,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.19,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.34,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.01,0	92.7%
HOU 97, NYK 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.32,0.37,0.33,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.25,0.21,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.47,0.38,0.47,0.31,0.24,0.13,0.07,0.05,0.02,0,0	92.5%