NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	83		Excitement	7.1 [407]		MVP	Brooks Thompson (DEN): +19.5%
Minnesota Timberwolves	96		Comeback	16.8 [167]		LVP	Dale Ellis (DEN): -19.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brooks Thompson	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.11	0.09	0.01	8	87%	0.22	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	3	37%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Goldwire	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	4	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Bryant Stith	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	11	52%	-0.01	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.04
Antonio McDyess	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	14	57%	0.07	3	-0.12	7	86%	0.01
Tom Hammonds	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	3	67%	0.01	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Allen	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Smith	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.06	-0.02	19	30%	-0.15	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dale Ellis	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.11	-0.08	-0.00	9	35%	-0.13	2	-0.06	5	80%	-0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.07	0.01	10	58%	0.10	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	7	60%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	14	57%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Cherokee Parks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.03	7	61%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03
Chris Carr	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
James Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.14,-0.18,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.19,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.02	-0.01	23	46%	-0.11	3	-0.05	19	74%	-0.03
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	-0.00	15	39%	-0.06	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.4	2.6	24.1	15.7	31.3	2.5	32.2	128.8
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +11.3%

MIN +9.9%

DEN -3.3%

MIN +31.7%

MIN +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIN	NBA	DEN	MIN	NBA
this game	15.3	15.5	15.6	89.2	102.1	104.4
season	15.2	15.5		102.3	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.3		105.3	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.7	14.7	12.9	18.0	15.3
MIN	17.0	15.9	17.1	12.0	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Goldwire	38	39	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.02	2	-15	17	14.6	15.9	-1.28	16.6	14.6	2.00
Ervin Johnson	58	60	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.09	2	-15	17	15.4	15.2	0.21	17.0	12.8	4.14
Tom Hammonds	21	21	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-10	7	15.1	15.4	-0.31	13.2	16.1	-2.93
Jerome Allen	22	22	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.01	-3	-10	7	15.9	15.2	0.75	13.8	16.0	-2.21
Antonio McDyess	71	71	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.24	3	-16	19	15.6	14.5	1.15	16.5	12.4	4.02
Kenny Smith	26	25	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.04	-7	-6	-1	15.8	15.2	0.61	16.4	15.1	1.22
Brooks Thompson	29	30	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-8	-5	-3	15.9	15.1	0.87	13.2	16.5	-3.33
Bryant Stith	72	73	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.08	-10	-3	-7	15.1	16.0	-0.92	15.8	14.1	1.71
LaPhonso Ellis	76	76	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.06	-17	4	-21	14.9	17.2	-2.33	15.3	16.1	-0.73
Dale Ellis	52	53	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.05	-24	11	-35	15.6	15.0	0.68	13.7	17.7	-3.97

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Porter	69	67	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.13	21	-8	29	15.5	15.3	0.20	15.4	15.2	0.20
Tom Gugliotta	81	81	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.20	14	-1	15	14.8	19.8	-4.99	15.4	15.2	0.19
Stephon Marbury	82	82	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.04	16	-3	19	15.0	18.5	-3.48	15.4	14.8	0.58
Kevin Garnett	79	79	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.04	16	-3	19	15.3	16.3	-1.03	15.2	16.1	-0.95
Dean Garrett	58	56	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.21	7	6	1	16.4	13.9	2.51	16.2	14.0	2.17
Sam Mitchell	57	56	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.12	7	6	1	15.4	15.6	-0.21	14.7	16.3	-1.56
James Robinson	13	12	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.04	-3	16	-19	17.5	15.1	2.40	14.7	15.4	-0.77
Cherokee Parks	7	7	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.03	-5	18	-23	18.0	15.3	2.74	14.7	15.4	-0.67
Chris Carr	24	25	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.03	-8	21	-29	15.7	15.4	0.32	15.3	15.4	-0.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.42,0.25,0.29,0.35,0.2,0.11,0.06,0.19,0.25,0.38,0.43,0.53,0.47,0.63,0.53,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.93,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 81, ATL 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.51,0.46,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.5,0.41,0.42,0.33,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.21,0.15,0.29,0.36,0.5,0.52,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.72,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.96,1	92.1%
ORL 82, NYK 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.52,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.23,0.26,0.32,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.87,0.9,1,1,1,1	91.8%
DAL 93, LAC 99	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.49,0.42,0.3,0.26,0.35,0.25,0.21,0.16,0.25,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.58,0.58,0.7,0.85,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.75,0.96,1	91.6%