NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	98		Excitement	5.1 [785]		MVP	Dell Curry (CHH): +15.2%
Charlotte Hornets	105		Comeback	1.3 [858]		LVP	Monty Williams (SAS): -14.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Perdue	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	10	60%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	8	65%	0.07	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Vernon Maxwell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	11	56%	0.03	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.03
Jamie Feick	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.04	-0.03	16	53%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.07	-0.05	0.07	15	60%	-0.05	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Greg Anderson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	-0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.05	0.01	12	54%	0.02	5	-0.16	4	75%	-0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.05	-0.01	9	77%	0.17	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.03
Glen Rice	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.06	-0.04	19	57%	0.19	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	10	73%	0.12	2	-0.05	6	83%	-0.01
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.01	-0.01	6	86%	0.11	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	6	71%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Matt Geiger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	67%	0.04	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Donald Royal	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rafael Addison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Ricky Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	7	57%	0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	1.5	25.2	13.7	23.2	1.7	30.2	117.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +53.3%

CHH +8.0%

SAS -11.8%

CHH +0.4%

CHH +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CHH	NBA	SAS	CHH	NBA
this game	18.0	15.1	15.6	112.6	120.7	104.4
season	16.8	15.7		100.8	108.0
opponent	16.0	15.4		106.5	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.9	16.7	20.2	16.4	18.0
CHH	16.2	14.7	16.6	13.7	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamie Feick	13	13	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.01	0	-7	7	16.9	18.1	-1.21	14.0	15.4	-1.35
Vernon Maxwell	41	43	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.18	2	-9	11	16.5	19.2	-2.73	13.9	16.4	-2.46
Cory Alexander	39	41	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.14	0	-7	7	17.2	18.5	-1.31	14.0	16.1	-2.08
Greg Anderson	39	41	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.23	1	-8	9	17.2	18.6	-1.36	14.9	15.4	-0.56
Will Perdue	48	46	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.06	-8	1	-9	18.6	17.2	1.36	15.4	14.9	0.56
Monty Williams	57	55	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.13	-6	-1	-5	18.8	16.4	2.32	16.7	12.6	4.09
Avery Johnson	48	46	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.15	-7	0	-7	18.5	17.2	1.31	16.1	14.0	2.08
Carl Herrera	74	74	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.28	-7	0	-7	18.1	16.9	1.21	15.4	14.0	1.35
Vinny Del Negro	76	76	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.28	-10	3	-13	18.1	16.7	1.40	14.8	17.8	-3.06

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Mason	84	85	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.32	8	-1	9	15.4	8.3	7.06	18.1	10.5	7.63
Glen Rice	76	77	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.18	9	-2	11	15.8	10.5	5.27	18.3	15.1	3.22
Muggsy Bogues	41	42	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.05	11	-4	15	15.9	14.5	1.42	19.9	16.2	3.68
Vlade Divac	39	41	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.11	9	-2	11	16.6	14.0	2.56	19.1	16.9	2.16
Ricky Pierce	21	21	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.08	7	0	7	15.5	15.0	0.43	19.4	17.5	1.94
Dell Curry	48	47	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.29	-4	11	-15	13.9	16.7	-2.84	17.3	18.7	-1.47
Matt Geiger	48	46	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.18	-2	9	-11	14.0	16.6	-2.56	16.9	19.1	-2.16
Tony Delk	46	45	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.24	-4	11	-15	14.5	15.9	-1.42	16.2	19.9	-3.68
Tony Smith	15	17	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.06	6	1	5	16.6	14.8	1.75	19.1	17.7	1.45
Rafael Addison	14	12	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.09	-4	11	-15	13.9	15.4	-1.54	14.0	18.6	-4.59
Donald Royal	8	6	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.06	-4	11	-15	6.4	16.0	-9.66	8.3	18.7	-10.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.46,0.44,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.71,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.85,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 112, PHX 125	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.46,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.72,0.78,0.82,0.87,0.81,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.89,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	95.0%
ORL 74, DEN 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.42,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.62,0.48,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.72,0.73,0.8,0.82,0.9,0.81,0.79,0.83,0.92,0.9,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
DEN 86, UTA 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.73,0.68,0.71,0.65,0.76,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.92,0.88,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.85,1,1	94.8%