NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	85		Excitement	4.4 [897]		MVP	Sam Mack (HOU): +12.0%
Houston Rockets	95		Comeback	1.2 [1215]		LVP	Will Perdue (SAS): -14.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamie Feick	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dominique Wilkins	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.06	22	56%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.01	17	56%	-0.00	2	-0.02	5	80%	-0.01
Greg Anderson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Cory Alexander	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	11	35%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Avery Johnson	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	13	47%	-0.02	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.00
Will Perdue	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.04	-0.01	3	25%	-0.04	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.01	-0.01	10	70%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.01	-0.03	6	77%	0.11	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Charles Barkley	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	13	56%	0.07	2	-0.03	8	37%	-0.04
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	11	48%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Mario Elie	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	6	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Randy Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	5	67%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Maloney	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hakeem Olajuwon	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	0.02	21	48%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Matt Bullard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.6	28.4	17.7	28.2	1.8	28.3	132.5
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +58.0%

SAS -5.5%

SAS -19.6%

HOU +10.6%

HOU +6.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	HOU	NBA	SAS	HOU	NBA
this game	17.6	17.3	15.6	102.4	115.9	104.4
season	16.8	15.5		100.8	107.2
opponent	15.4	15.4		103.0	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.1	16.6	18.0	17.7	17.6
HOU	18.9	16.1	17.1	17.4	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Perdue	45	43	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.24	5	-15	20	16.5	18.8	-2.35	18.0	16.6	1.48
Jamie Feick	32	30	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.17	2	-12	14	16.2	18.5	-2.29	17.1	17.5	-0.33
Cory Alexander	17	17	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.04	-10	0	-10	17.2	17.7	-0.49	17.6	17.3	0.31
Avery Johnson	76	75	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.21	-5	-5	0	17.7	16.4	1.24	17.3	18.0	-0.72
Greg Anderson	46	47	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.01	-14	4	-18	17.5	17.6	-0.15	17.1	17.7	-0.65
Carl Herrera	52	53	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.10	-11	1	-12	19.3	14.6	4.77	17.0	18.0	-1.07
Dominique Wilkins	70	69	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.13	-10	0	-10	17.3	18.9	-1.61	17.4	17.1	0.31
Vinny Del Negro	77	76	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.23	-7	-3	-4	17.8	14.2	3.66	17.4	16.3	1.09

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hakeem Olajuwon	70	69	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.15	13	-3	16	17.1	18.5	-1.36	18.0	15.5	2.49
Randy Livingston	35	36	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.06	11	-1	12	16.3	18.1	-1.74	18.3	17.0	1.31
Brent Price	48	50	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.13	8	2	6	16.9	18.0	-1.07	17.4	17.8	-0.42
Kevin Willis	38	41	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.06	8	2	6	16.9	17.7	-0.88	18.1	17.0	1.05
Sam Mack	58	58	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.14	5	5	0	17.5	16.9	0.66	16.7	19.7	-3.02
Mario Elie	61	62	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.21	0	10	-10	17.9	15.6	2.32	17.3	18.2	-0.90
Charles Barkley	56	56	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.20	-1	11	-12	17.9	16.1	1.80	16.7	19.4	-2.78
Matt Maloney	39	38	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.06	3	7	-4	18.3	16.4	1.89	18.4	16.9	1.53
Matt Bullard	5	5	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.04	3	7	-4	11.4	17.7	-6.33	21.0	17.3	3.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.73,0.76,0.88,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.89,0.87,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 98, CHI 113	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.7,0.79,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.85,0.87,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
BOS 89, DET 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.75,0.91,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
DEN 80, CHH 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.77,0.84,0.88,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.89,0.82,0.89,0.95,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%