NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	89		Excitement	4.3 [923]		MVP	Otis Thorpe (DET): +11.4%
Detroit Pistons	99		Comeback	1.2 [874]		LVP	Dino Radja (BOS): -16.6%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rick Fox	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	0.00	9	77%	0.16	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
David Wesley	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.01	0.02	13	81%	0.16	6	-0.14	5	60%	-0.01
Marty Conlon	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brett Szabo	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	14	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	8	75%	0.01
Eric Williams	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	9	64%	0.03	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Greg Minor	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Todd Day	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	6	29%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dana Barros	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	0.02	5	30%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dino Radja	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.15	-0.02	-0.01	10	45%	-0.04	7	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Otis Thorpe	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.04	0.00	8	84%	0.15	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	3	117%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	11	59%	0.05	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.01	-0.02	17	58%	0.03	2	-0.01	9	78%	-0.01
Joe Dumars	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.01	10	65%	0.04	3	-0.04	3	100%	0.00
Rick Mahorn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Litterial Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Grant Long	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	67%	0.03	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.14	-0.00	-0.06	14	23%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.3	26.6	15.7	24.2	2.4	29.6	127.1
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +32.0%

DET +0.6%

DET +2.0%

DET +14.5%

DET +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DET	NBA	BOS	DET	NBA
this game	16.2	16.2	15.6	101.1	110.0	104.4
season	14.8	17.1		101.8	107.6
opponent	16.2	14.7		102.0	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.8	17.6	17.1	14.3	16.2
DET	16.2	15.1	17.1	16.3	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brett Szabo	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-10	10	6.0	16.4	-10.42	14.5	16.2	-1.72
Greg Minor	50	52	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.18	5	-15	20	15.5	17.1	-1.67	16.5	15.7	0.76
Rick Fox	47	50	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.19	4	-14	18	16.1	16.3	-0.21	16.4	15.9	0.55
Marty Conlon	18	19	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.03	-7	-3	-4	18.4	15.6	2.84	13.8	16.8	-2.96
David Wesley	74	74	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.23	-1	-9	8	15.5	19.6	-4.03	16.6	14.0	2.65
Dino Radja	59	61	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.15	-5	-5	0	16.0	16.6	-0.55	16.9	14.7	2.14
Dana Barros	42	40	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.22	-5	-5	0	16.4	16.0	0.47	14.7	17.3	-2.57
Todd Day	35	38	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.06	-16	6	-22	17.2	15.5	1.69	14.7	17.3	-2.59
Antoine Walker	51	52	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.13	-10	0	-10	16.5	15.7	0.87	16.0	16.4	-0.33
Eric Williams	62	62	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.02	-15	5	-20	16.4	15.7	0.75	17.2	13.9	3.26

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Mills	56	55	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.08	15	-5	20	14.9	18.2	-3.31	15.9	16.6	-0.73
Joe Dumars	72	70	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.12	10	0	10	16.6	14.3	2.31	16.1	16.6	-0.54
Michael Curry	36	37	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.06	11	-1	12	14.7	17.1	-2.43	16.4	16.0	0.43
Litterial Green	20	21	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.01	9	1	8	14.5	16.7	-2.16	17.6	15.7	1.83
Grant Hill	79	75	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.27	-1	11	-12	16.2	16.0	0.20	15.5	19.8	-4.30
Lindsey Hunter	72	69	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.25	-1	11	-12	16.4	15.2	1.19	15.8	17.6	-1.78
Otis Thorpe	44	45	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.12	3	7	-4	17.4	15.0	2.36	16.7	15.6	1.08
Theo Ratliff	17	17	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	6	-2	14.7	16.5	-1.81	17.9	15.8	2.11
Grant Long	46	44	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.14	-2	12	-14	17.3	15.0	2.22	16.9	15.5	1.45
Rick Mahorn	8	7	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.02	2	8	-6	19.4	15.9	3.51	12.4	16.5	-4.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.75,0.91,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 85, HOU 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.73,0.76,0.88,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.89,0.87,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
GSW 93, SAS 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.6,0.63,0.74,0.86,0.83,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.84,0.81,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.76,0.81,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.89,0.82,0.85,0.9,0.85,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.93,1,1,1	94.8%
IND 71, BOS 85	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.82,0.82,0.9,0.86,0.79,0.79,0.75,0.79,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.86,0.93,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	94.6%