NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	100		Excitement	7.2 [371]		MVP	Chris Carr (MIN): +21.4%
Minnesota Timberwolves	104		Comeback	1.7 [461]		LVP	Stephon Marbury (MIN): -29.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rony Seikaly	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11	0.03	0.08	0.00	12	62%	0.12	1	-0.02	10	90%	0.04
Horace Grant	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	9	78%	0.14	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derek Strong	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Gerald Wilkins	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	5	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Nick Anderson	-0.13	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13	-0.01	-0.08	0.04	17	53%	-0.06	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Dennis Scott	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13	-0.03	-0.11	-0.00	13	42%	-0.02	1	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	-0.18	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,0.01,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	17	44%	-0.13	2	-0.04	9	67%	-0.02

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Carr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.18	0.04	0.00	11	85%	0.21	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.07	0.00	16	61%	0.15	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.00	12	67%	0.14	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Doug West	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	5	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Shane Heal	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cherokee Parks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.03	-0.00	15	47%	0.02	1	-0.04	10	90%	0.02
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.04	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.02	7	35%	-0.03	4	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.22,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29	-0.29	-0.17	-0.13	-0.00	7	29%	-0.05	6	-0.24	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.4	25.4	15.5	24.4	2.4	35.2	127.8
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +45.2%

MIN +17.8%

ORL -1.6%

ORL -16.5%

MIN +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIN	NBA	ORL	MIN	NBA
this game	16.2	15.4	15.6	109.9	114.3	104.4
season	16.4	15.5		102.9	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.5		105.3	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.2	17.7	16.8	14.3	16.2
MIN	15.8	14.2	16.0	15.7	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Strong	41	41	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-2	0	16.2	16.2	-0.02	16.2	14.8	1.37
Dennis Scott	53	53	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.23	-2	-2	0	16.0	16.5	-0.51	15.3	15.6	-0.23
Anfernee Hardaway	74	75	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.34	1	-5	6	16.2	16.5	-0.29	15.0	17.4	-2.37
Nick Anderson	72	71	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.31	0	-4	4	16.4	15.6	0.76	15.3	15.8	-0.55
Brian Shaw	40	39	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.24	-4	0	-4	15.7	16.6	-0.86	15.3	15.5	-0.19
Horace Grant	75	76	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.37	0	-4	4	16.0	17.2	-1.16	15.0	17.7	-2.69
Rony Seikaly	64	64	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.26	-4	0	-4	17.0	14.5	2.43	15.6	15.0	0.65
Gerald Wilkins	36	36	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.12	-9	5	-14	16.0	16.4	-0.34	16.5	14.7	1.84

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Porter	40	40	0.93	-0.43	1.35	0.34	20	-16	36	14.1	16.5	-2.40	16.2	16.3	-0.05
Kevin Garnett	75	76	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.40	1	3	-2	15.2	16.4	-1.24	16.1	17.1	-1.08
Tom Gugliotta	68	68	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.51	-3	7	-10	15.9	14.1	1.72	16.5	15.5	1.01
Chris Carr	48	48	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.09	8	-4	12	15.4	15.4	-0.00	16.0	16.5	-0.53
Dean Garrett	86	84	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.34	-1	5	-6	15.5	13.4	2.13	16.6	11.9	4.74
Sam Mitchell	40	40	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.06	12	-8	20	14.8	15.9	-1.01	15.4	16.9	-1.53
Doug West	43	43	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.29	-4	8	-12	15.4	15.4	0.00	16.5	16.0	0.53
Cherokee Parks	3	4	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.03	3	1	2	15.0	15.4	-0.43	18.7	16.1	2.64
Shane Heal	1	1	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	4	-4	16.0	15.4	0.59	6.0	16.3	-10.34
Stephon Marbury	51	51	-0.43	0.93	-1.35	0.04	-16	20	-36	16.5	14.1	2.40	16.3	16.2	0.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.69,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.94,0.91,0.91,0.89,0.8,0.95,0.81,0.63,0.9,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 82, PHI 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.33,0.34,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.75,0.7,0.75,0.84,0.87,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.91,0.93,0.81,0.71,0.94,0.92,1	93.5%
IND 95, SEA 103	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.75,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.8,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.94,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.89,0.84,0.99,1,1	93.2%
ORL 97, MIA 103	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.69,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.94,0.96,0.9,0.93,0.89,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.63,0.85,0.92,1	93.0%