NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	97		Excitement	6.4 [532]		MVP	Udonis Haslem (MIA): +25.7%
Miami Heat	103		Comeback	1.7 [205]		LVP	Brian Cook (ORL): -10.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.04,0.2,0.2,0.12	0.01	0.11	-0.00	11	57%	0.26	3	-0.14	6	83%	0.04
Hedo Turkoglu	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.05	-0.02	13	58%	0.15	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.05
Dwight Howard	0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.06	0.13	-0.05	0.02	11	76%	0.17	2	-0.11	7	57%	-0.04
Tony Battie	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.05	-0.00	1	100%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	9	39%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	0.08	-0.14	0.04	12	66%	0.04	2	-0.14	8	75%	-0.00
Brian Cook	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.3,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.05	0.21	0.00	8	67%	0.28	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.21	0.21	0.14	0.05	-0.01	12	74%	0.21	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.08	0.02	21	53%	0.15	0	0.00	9	56%	-0.04
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.06	-0.02	5	77%	0.14	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	8	100%	0.04
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	8	42%	-0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.03
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	8	44%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	4	33%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.4	28.6	15.7	25.6	2.5	34.4	134.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +15.3%

ORL -15.0%

ORL -2.9%

MIA +46.1%

MIA +6.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.5	17.3	15.5	106.6	114.4	106.4
season	15.3	16.0		107.3	105.9
opponent	15.7	15.8		105.7	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.9	15.4	17.0	12.0	14.5
MIA	18.2	15.2	17.3	18.8	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Battie	12	13	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.04	-5	-1	-4	15.0	14.4	0.57	17.2	17.4	-0.21
Courtney Lee	65	63	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.34	8	-14	22	14.0	15.7	-1.61	17.2	17.6	-0.42
Brian Cook	14	14	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.09	-1	-5	4	18.4	13.8	4.55	16.7	17.4	-0.73
JJ Redick	21	21	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.08	-8	2	-10	13.5	14.8	-1.34	17.8	17.2	0.56
Jameer Nelson	66	66	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.32	4	-10	14	14.7	14.0	0.64	17.0	18.3	-1.31
Marcin Gortat	21	18	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.06	-10	4	-14	15.3	14.3	1.08	16.1	17.6	-1.53
Dwight Howard	70	72	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.39	4	-10	14	14.3	15.3	-1.08	17.6	16.1	1.53
Anthony Johnson	25	24	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.00	-10	4	-14	14.0	14.7	-0.64	18.3	17.0	1.31
Keith Bogans	13	13	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	5	-16	17.0	14.1	2.91	17.1	17.4	-0.30
Hedo Turkoglu	76	77	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.35	1	-7	8	14.3	15.7	-1.47	17.3	17.5	-0.24
Rashard Lewis	72	69	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.31	-2	-4	2	14.2	15.7	-1.49	17.6	16.6	0.99

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Blount	37	38	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.41	6	0	6	16.1	18.2	-2.13	14.6	14.4	0.17
Daequan Cook	56	58	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.17	8	-2	10	17.1	17.7	-0.60	13.5	16.3	-2.87
Dwyane Wade	70	70	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.27	3	3	0	16.9	18.8	-1.89	14.5	14.5	-0.02
Udonis Haslem	62	61	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.27	0	6	-6	17.4	17.3	0.07	14.1	15.3	-1.19
Mario Chalmers	64	64	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.24	1	5	-4	16.8	18.7	-1.86	14.0	15.7	-1.76
Chris Quinn	26	27	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	1	4	18.7	16.8	1.86	15.7	14.0	1.76
Michael Beasley	28	30	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.05	6	0	6	17.3	17.4	-0.07	15.3	14.1	1.19
Yakhouba Diawara	43	44	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.22	0	6	-6	18.1	16.7	1.41	16.0	13.1	2.81
James Jones	11	10	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.02	1	5	-4	18.3	17.2	1.07	14.2	14.5	-0.34
Jamaal Magloire	41	41	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.14	4	2	2	18.0	16.8	1.18	14.3	14.7	-0.39
Joel Anthony	12	12	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	10	-14	19.0	17.1	1.92	14.9	14.4	0.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.69,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.94,0.96,0.9,0.93,0.89,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.63,0.85,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 82, PHI 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.33,0.34,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.75,0.7,0.75,0.84,0.87,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.91,0.93,0.81,0.71,0.94,0.92,1	93.5%
PHX 100, SAC 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.58,0.58,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.78,0.69,0.66,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.94,0.85,0.83,0.88,0.9,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.77,0.98,0.95,1	93.1%
ORL 100, MIN 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.69,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.94,0.91,0.91,0.89,0.8,0.95,0.81,0.63,0.9,0.95,1	93.0%