NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	111		Excitement	6.9 [427]		MVP	Derek Strong (ORL): +8.5%
Orlando Magic	119		Comeback	3.5 [964]		LVP	David Wesley (BOS): -20.5%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rick Fox	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06	0.12	0.05	0.10	18	70%	0.11	2	-0.05	7	71%	-0.07
Eric Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.02	13	66%	0.09	2	-0.07	6	50%	-0.05
Alton Lister	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Todd Day	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.06	-0.04	0.01	19	60%	0.03	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Brett Szabo	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marty Conlon	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	4	60%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Steve Hamer	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	10	52%	0.04	4	-0.11	5	60%	-0.01
David Wesley	-0.21	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.21	-0.16	-0.05	-0.01	15	41%	-0.02	6	-0.19	4	50%	-0.03

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Strong	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.05	-0.00	6	80%	0.12	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Nick Anderson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.08	-0.01	0.06	-0.04	18	52%	0.12	2	-0.05	6	33%	-0.03
Dennis Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	7	59%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Gerald Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.05	-0.02	8	39%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.01	15	62%	0.12	4	-0.10	10	80%	0.01
Dan Schayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	4	64%	0.05	4	-0.10	6	83%	0.02
Rony Seikaly	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.06	-0.02	17	63%	0.01	4	-0.07	17	59%	-0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.0	30.2	15.4	24.3	1.8	43.2	139.7
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +24.8%

ORL +7.4%

BOS -0.1%

ORL +20.4%

BOS -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ORL	NBA	BOS	ORL	NBA
this game	13.4	14.3	15.6	105.7	115.5	104.4
season	14.8	16.4		101.8	102.9
opponent	15.5	14.7		103.5	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.0	14.0	13.6	13.0	13.4
ORL	13.2	15.4	15.2	13.7	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brett Szabo	6	6	0.07	-0.56	0.63	-0.02	3	-11	14	8.5	13.7	-5.16	12.0	14.5	-2.48
Steve Hamer	9	9	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-6	4	13.8	13.3	0.45	11.0	14.7	-3.66
Marty Conlon	43	45	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-11	14	13.9	13.0	0.84	15.3	13.6	1.69
Alton Lister	22	21	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.06	-3	-5	2	14.6	13.0	1.55	16.9	13.7	3.22
Rick Fox	90	88	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-4	0	13.3	13.8	-0.51	14.0	16.4	-2.41
Antoine Walker	76	73	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.20	-6	-2	-4	13.5	12.9	0.60	13.8	15.7	-1.87
Eric Williams	83	81	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.17	-11	3	-14	13.1	14.3	-1.15	14.9	12.4	2.46
Todd Day	95	92	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.23	-10	2	-12	13.7	10.6	3.05	14.1	16.3	-2.16
David Wesley	101	100	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.23	-10	2	-12	13.0	22.5	-9.50	14.3	15.3	-1.02

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Anderson	84	85	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.24	13	-5	18	14.0	16.1	-2.10	12.8	15.5	-2.70
Derek Strong	64	64	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.06	14	-6	20	14.3	14.4	-0.03	13.6	12.9	0.71
Anfernee Hardaway	90	92	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.17	9	-1	10	14.1	16.1	-1.99	13.2	14.2	-0.99
Rony Seikaly	89	91	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.21	5	3	2	14.4	13.6	0.81	13.6	12.1	1.49
Gerald Wilkins	43	44	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.17	3	5	-2	15.0	13.8	1.17	13.8	13.0	0.75
Dennis Scott	86	88	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.21	0	8	-8	14.5	13.6	0.83	13.5	12.5	1.06
Dan Schayes	14	14	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.06	3	5	-2	13.6	14.4	-0.81	12.1	13.6	-1.49
Darrell Armstrong	3	4	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	8	-8	15.3	14.3	1.02	22.5	13.0	9.50
Brian Shaw	42	43	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.19	-7	15	-22	14.6	14.1	0.47	12.6	13.9	-1.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.41,0.47,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.7,0.77,0.78,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.76,0.88,0.83,0.91,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.95,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 84, SEA 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.73,0.81,0.87,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.91,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.0%
DEN 99, UTA 114	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.27,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.45,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.82,0.74,0.82,0.81,0.74,0.82,0.76,0.9,0.79,0.76,0.91,0.95,0.98,1,1,1	93.9%
NOP 94, POR 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.66,0.77,0.9,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.89,0.85,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,0.95,1	93.7%