NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	99		Excitement	6.6 [479]		MVP	Jeff Hornacek (UTA): +25.7%
Utah Jazz	114		Comeback	3.5 [440]		LVP	Karl Malone (UTA): -18.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dale Ellis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.03	9	71%	0.05	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.03
Ricky Pierce	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	10	60%	0.05	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Darvin Ham	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.00	10	69%	0.10	3	-0.10	9	89%	0.02
Antonio McDyess	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	12	47%	-0.05	3	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	0.01	-0.01	26	41%	-0.03	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.04
Kenny Smith	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.06	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	6	29%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Hornacek	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.17	0.09	0.01	14	87%	0.34	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.02	11	54%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Greg Foster	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Carr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	6	56%	0.05	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Chris Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
John Stockton	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.03	10	64%	0.05	2	-0.04	8	87%	-0.01
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	2	62%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Stephen Howard	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Adam Keefe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Karl Malone	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.10	-0.06	0.03	24	47%	-0.09	3	-0.09	11	73%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	2.3	22.7	15.6	25.8	1.7	32.3	126.1
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +41.1%

DEN -0.7%

UTA +4.0%

UTA +4.6%

UTA +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	14.7	14.2	15.6	100.0	114.0	104.4
season	15.2	15.6		102.3	110.8
opponent	16.0	15.3		102.2	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.9	13.3	15.3	15.3	14.7
UTA	12.8	15.4	14.7	14.0	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ricky Pierce	41	41	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.03	7	-22	29	14.4	15.0	-0.59	15.4	13.4	2.08
Darvin Ham	2	3	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.01	0	-15	15	7.0	14.9	-7.90	11.3	14.3	-2.97
Tom Hammonds	22	23	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.09	-1	-14	13	17.0	14.1	2.85	13.7	14.4	-0.61
Dale Ellis	66	68	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.03	-9	-6	-3	14.1	16.1	-2.03	14.6	13.5	1.09
Ervin Johnson	66	66	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.11	-6	-9	3	14.5	15.2	-0.71	14.5	13.6	0.85
Antonio McDyess	55	55	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.01	-11	-4	-7	14.5	15.1	-0.60	14.5	13.9	0.58
LaPhonso Ellis	86	85	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	0.01	-18	3	-21	15.2	11.5	3.68	13.8	16.7	-2.97
Mark Jackson	94	95	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.03	-19	4	-23	14.8	14.2	0.57	14.0	18.6	-4.62
Kenny Smith	63	64	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.06	-18	3	-21	14.9	14.4	0.50	13.8	15.0	-1.23

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Hornacek	73	73	0.73	-0.23	0.96	-0.00	25	-10	35	13.4	16.5	-3.11	14.8	14.4	0.43
Karl Malone	85	86	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.01	24	-9	33	13.3	19.3	-5.95	14.6	15.8	-1.19
Bryon Russell	82	81	0.67	-0.17	0.83	-0.07	25	-10	35	13.4	17.8	-4.42	14.4	16.1	-1.61
John Stockton	77	77	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.01	8	7	1	14.0	15.0	-0.97	15.5	11.9	3.64
Howard Eisley	31	31	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.11	4	11	-7	14.8	13.9	0.91	14.2	15.0	-0.79
Greg Ostertag	41	40	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.16	2	13	-11	16.7	12.5	4.19	15.6	14.1	1.53
Greg Foster	18	18	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.04	5	10	-5	12.3	14.6	-2.29	15.7	14.5	1.20
Stephen Howard	7	6	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.02	2	13	-11	9.7	14.5	-4.83	15.7	14.7	0.99
Antoine Carr	49	48	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.01	-3	18	-21	15.0	13.4	1.59	13.8	15.6	-1.88
Chris Morris	13	11	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.03	-5	20	-25	18.4	13.6	4.80	11.4	15.2	-3.80
Adam Keefe	24	24	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	0.10	-12	27	-39	17.1	13.3	3.84	15.0	14.6	0.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.27,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.45,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.82,0.74,0.82,0.81,0.74,0.82,0.76,0.9,0.79,0.76,0.91,0.95,0.98,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 111, ORL 119	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.41,0.47,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.7,0.77,0.78,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.76,0.88,0.83,0.91,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.95,0.98,1	93.9%
NYK 92, NJN 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.29,0.34,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.79,0.86,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.82,0.8,0.85,0.79,0.67,0.83,0.86,0.97,1,0.99,1	93.1%
SAC 98, POR 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.55,0.64,0.71,0.78,0.82,0.89,0.85,0.81,0.78,0.88,0.93,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.94,0.97,0.98,1	92.7%