NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	92		Excitement	8.6 [157]		MVP	Reggie Miller (IND): +14.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	89		Comeback	1.7 [412]		LVP	Sherman Douglas (MIL): -34.2%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.01	0.12	-0.01	12	50%	0.15	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Dale Davis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	6	64%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Derrick McKey	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.09,0.02	-0.08	0.09	0.00	8	52%	0.08	2	-0.06	11	55%	-0.05
Rik Smits	-0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01	0.06	-0.04	0.02	20	60%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.04
Jerome Allen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	38%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.05
Erick Dampier	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Antonio Davis	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,-0.07	0.07	-0.14	0.00	4	100%	0.13	1	-0.20	2	100%	0.02
Vincent Askew	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	-0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.31	-0.03	-0.27	-0.00	8	44%	-0.26	1	-0.05	2	0%	-0.21

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.02	-0.02	6	71%	0.11	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.03,0.05,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.04	0.01	19	63%	0.19	2	-0.09	8	100%	0.09
David Wood	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Brown	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elliot Perry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Lang	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	0.04	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.04	-0.04	-0.12	0.03	-0.04	17	47%	0.09	3	-0.13	13	62%	-0.05
Armen Gilliam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	4	40%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.23	-0.23	-0.06	-0.17	0.01	11	33%	-0.23	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Sherman Douglas	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.34	-0.34	-0.09	-0.24	0.01	9	35%	-0.31	1	-0.03	5	40%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	1.8	27.3	15.7	27.0	1.6	39.9	135.8
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +72.1%

MIL -32.4%

IND +18.2%

MIL -2.0%

MIL -5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIL	NBA	IND	MIL	NBA
this game	15.3	18.0	15.6	107.0	102.3	104.4
season	15.3	16.0		103.6	103.9
opponent	15.5	16.3		106.0	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	15.1	14.3	18.1	13.8	15.3
MIL	18.3	19.3	18.8	16.1	18.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Miller	67	68	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.40	0	3	-3	15.5	14.3	1.22	17.7	19.3	-1.60
Jalen Rose	63	62	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.35	0	3	-3	15.7	14.2	1.49	17.3	19.7	-2.40
Rik Smits	57	59	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.32	1	2	-1	15.9	14.0	1.96	18.0	18.1	-0.14
Dale Davis	48	49	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.22	4	-1	5	15.3	15.2	0.05	20.1	15.3	4.83
Vincent Askew	35	35	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.00	11	-8	19	13.5	16.5	-3.00	17.8	18.2	-0.40
Eddie Johnson	21	20	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.06	9	-6	15	11.9	16.4	-4.51	17.8	18.1	-0.27
Derrick McKey	68	69	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.39	-7	10	-17	15.4	14.8	0.55	17.2	21.2	-4.05
Antonio Davis	42	42	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.26	-3	6	-9	15.7	14.8	0.92	17.9	18.1	-0.25
Jerome Allen	23	25	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.07	3	0	3	14.2	15.7	-1.49	19.7	17.3	2.40
Erick Dampier	6	6	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.01	-3	6	-9	23.5	14.6	8.85	17.8	18.0	-0.19

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chucky Brown	10	11	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.00	-2	-1	-1	20.1	17.7	2.36	13.9	15.5	-1.56
Johnny Newman	39	37	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.05	-4	1	-5	18.6	17.5	1.14	16.0	14.7	1.33
Elliot Perry	19	19	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.01	-4	1	-5	19.9	17.5	2.41	15.8	15.1	0.67
Ray Allen	48	50	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.26	3	-6	9	17.5	18.6	-1.14	14.5	16.3	-1.74
Armen Gilliam	36	35	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.02	-8	5	-13	19.2	17.2	1.97	14.7	15.6	-0.88
Sherman Douglas	68	67	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.40	1	-4	5	17.5	19.9	-2.41	15.1	15.8	-0.67
Glenn Robinson	83	81	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.38	-2	-1	-1	17.8	22.2	-4.44	15.5	10.8	4.74
Vin Baker	81	80	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.45	-2	-1	-1	18.0	18.7	-0.70	15.2	16.5	-1.32
Andrew Lang	51	50	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.60	3	-6	9	17.2	19.2	-1.97	15.8	14.5	1.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.37,0.31,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.23,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.26,0.16,0.09,0.17,0.16,0.24,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 89, PHI 78	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.5,0.43,0.41,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.24,0.1,0.22,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.04,0.01,0.02,0	92.4%
PHI 96, NJN 92	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.24,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.13,0.2,0.18,0.3,0.27,0.36,0.46,0.48,0.33,0.33,0.28,0.17,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.11,0.15,0.04,0	92.3%
SAS 83, MEM 79	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.22,0.17,0.23,0.22,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.16,0.19,0.28,0.1,0.16,0.23,0.07,0	92.2%