NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	83		Excitement	7.1 [415]		MVP	David Robinson (SAS): +7.5%
Memphis Grizzlies	79		Comeback	2.1 [933]		LVP	Pau Gasol (MEM): -19.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Robinson	0.07	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,0.07	0.01	0.07	-0.00	14	62%	0.13	3	-0.06	6	50%	-0.03
Bruce Bowen	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	10	59%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Terry Porter	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	45%	0.01	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Tim Duncan	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02	-0.11	0.03	-0.06	25	47%	0.10	4	-0.12	8	37%	-0.06
Malik Rose	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	8	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	31%	-0.06	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Charles Smith	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.09	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Tony Parker	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16	-0.12	-0.04	0.00	9	35%	-0.08	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	70%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Will Solomon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	9	44%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.04	0.03	13	47%	-0.05	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.02
Grant Long	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	5	0%	-0.07	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.05	-0.09	0.01	22	45%	-0.02	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.05	-0.02	13	23%	-0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.2	-0.20	-0.10	-0.10	-0.01	18	52%	-0.01	5	-0.19	10	60%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	1.8	25.2	16.3	24.3	1.6	30.4	125.4
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +40.0%

MEM -16.9%

MEM -1.4%

SAS +24.1%

SAS +4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MEM	NBA	SAS	MEM	NBA
this game	16.5	15.6	15.6	92.2	88.8	102.3
season	15.8	15.7		104.3	96.0
opponent	15.2	15.7		103.8	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.9	15.2	17.9	18.4	16.5
MEM	15.1	16.1	17.2	14.3	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	64	65	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.40	8	-4	12	17.7	13.5	4.21	16.8	12.6	4.19
David Robinson	69	68	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.19	15	-11	26	15.3	20.5	-5.20	15.6	15.8	-0.22
Bruce Bowen	72	73	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.37	8	-4	12	17.6	12.1	5.53	16.1	13.5	2.61
Tim Duncan	84	84	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.34	8	-4	12	16.7	14.8	1.82	15.9	11.8	4.07
Steven Smith	40	39	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.05	16	-12	28	16.4	16.6	-0.15	17.2	14.4	2.74
Antonio Daniels	44	43	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.29	1	3	-2	16.3	16.8	-0.51	14.0	17.1	-3.08
Malik Rose	27	26	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.24	-15	19	-34	19.3	15.4	3.89	15.0	15.9	-0.85
Terry Porter	23	21	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.03	-8	12	-20	12.4	18.0	-5.56	13.4	16.3	-2.96
Charles Smith	27	26	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.11	-13	17	-30	14.8	17.3	-2.51	13.7	16.5	-2.81

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Solomon	31	32	0.22	-0.72	0.93	-0.02	8	-12	20	15.3	15.8	-0.54	17.0	16.3	0.72
Tony Massenburg	41	42	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.13	4	-8	12	16.8	14.7	2.11	16.9	16.2	0.74
Stromile Swift	60	60	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.20	-7	3	-10	14.9	17.1	-2.22	15.5	18.5	-3.00
Jason Williams	89	90	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	0	-4	15.6	0.0	15.64	16.5	0.0	16.53
Shane Battier	83	84	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.44	-4	0	-4	16.3	7.2	9.09	16.7	14.2	2.54
Pau Gasol	77	78	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.44	-5	1	-6	15.6	15.9	-0.32	17.1	12.9	4.17
Grant Long	64	64	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.31	-12	8	-20	15.0	17.2	-2.22	16.1	17.7	-1.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.22,0.17,0.23,0.22,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.16,0.19,0.28,0.1,0.16,0.23,0.07,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 92, ATL 79	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.63,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.39,0.3,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.25,0.23,0.2,0.21,0.26,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.17,0.03,0.02,0.03,0,0	92.6%
IND 92, MIL 89	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.37,0.31,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.23,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.26,0.16,0.09,0.17,0.16,0.24,0.16,0	92.2%
MIA 108, DET 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.38,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.24,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.34,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.13,0.11,0.02,0,0,0	91.8%