NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	79		Excitement	5.0 [798]		MVP	Ervin Johnson (DEN): +8.8%
Denver Nuggets	95		Comeback	1.3 [889]		LVP	Olden Polynice (SAC): -18.7%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Smith	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	10	52%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Kevin Gamble	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.02	12	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Duane Causwell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	3	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mitch Richmond	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.01	-0.03	0.05	26	52%	-0.05	2	-0.03	9	100%	0.03
Bobby Hurley	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	0.00	-0.00	6	25%	-0.01	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	-0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.04	-0.05	13	23%	-0.08	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Olden Polynice	-0.19	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.17	-0.04	-0.01	13	35%	-0.11	4	-0.07	5	20%	-0.07

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.02	13	58%	0.09	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Brooks Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	6	67%	0.09	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Dale Ellis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.04	-0.02	17	41%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	9	59%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Darvin Ham	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Booker	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaSalle Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	12	50%	0.01	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	15	49%	-0.02	2	-0.05	5	20%	-0.05
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.02	0.01	9	32%	-0.11	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.4	26.4	15.4	22.5	2.4	28.7	119.1
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +36.3%

DEN +3.3%

DEN +2.7%

DEN +4.7%

DEN +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DEN	NBA	SAC	DEN	NBA
this game	16.3	14.9	15.6	84.9	103.3	104.4
season	15.4	15.2		102.4	102.3
opponent	15.3	15.4		108.8	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	18.2	16.8	13.8	16.3	16.3
DEN	14.5	13.2	17.5	14.3	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mitch Richmond	82	82	-0.19	-0.32	0.13	-0.01	-6	-10	4	16.2	17.0	-0.84	15.4	10.4	5.01
Olden Polynice	77	77	-0.25	-0.26	0.01	-0.04	-7	-9	2	16.1	17.2	-1.12	15.3	12.8	2.47
Bobby Hurley	51	49	-0.32	-0.19	-0.13	0.09	-14	-2	-12	15.7	17.0	-1.31	13.8	16.1	-2.38
Kevin Gamble	77	77	-0.34	-0.17	-0.17	0.04	-13	-3	-10	15.8	18.5	-2.71	14.7	15.6	-0.87
Duane Causwell	30	29	-0.36	-0.15	-0.21	-0.09	-9	-7	-2	17.4	15.7	1.64	13.9	15.3	-1.47
Michael Smith	76	75	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.14	-9	-7	-2	16.4	15.6	0.82	15.4	12.7	2.65
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	72	71	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.03	-22	6	-28	16.9	14.1	2.73	14.6	15.7	-1.09

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brooks Thompson	42	42	0.55	-0.04	0.59	0.22	11	5	6	13.9	15.7	-1.78	17.1	15.6	1.48
Mark Jackson	92	93	0.51	0.00	0.51	0.04	16	0	16	14.9	0.0	14.87	16.3	0.0	16.26
Ervin Johnson	83	83	0.40	0.11	0.29	0.10	10	6	4	15.1	13.0	2.07	16.4	15.1	1.30
Dale Ellis	75	75	0.34	0.17	0.17	0.13	7	9	-2	15.1	13.6	1.50	16.6	14.9	1.63
Tom Hammonds	43	44	0.33	0.18	0.15	-0.05	13	3	10	14.2	15.5	-1.28	15.3	17.1	-1.78
Antonio McDyess	54	54	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.12	3	13	-10	15.1	14.5	0.67	16.4	16.1	0.22
Bryant Stith	60	59	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.10	8	8	0	16.0	12.7	3.39	16.8	15.4	1.38
LaSalle Thompson	5	6	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.04	4	12	-8	13.2	15.0	-1.77	19.8	16.0	3.82
Darvin Ham	4	6	-0.00	0.51	-0.51	-0.15	5	11	-6	6.7	15.2	-8.49	8.7	16.8	-8.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.61,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.82,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.82,0.88,0.84,0.79,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 82, WAS 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.71,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.87,0.81,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.9,0.91,0.98,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
ATL 79, SAC 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.68,0.75,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.82,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.63,0.72,0.62,0.74,0.88,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
CHI 91, DET 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.86,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.76,0.82,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.8,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%