NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	82		Excitement	4.2 [1003]		MVP	Donell Taylor (WAS): +10.2%
Washington Wizards	94		Comeback	1.2 [1145]		LVP	Steve Francis (ORL): -13.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keyon Dooling	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	11	62%	0.10	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Terence Morris	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	15	59%	0.07	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Mario Kasun	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	4	60%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Pat Garrity	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	6	57%	0.00	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Travis Diener	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.04	2	75%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.02	0.05	11	55%	-0.00	3	-0.04	7	86%	0.02
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.15	-0.01	-0.04	10	20%	-0.07	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.03	0.01	5	42%	-0.03	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donell Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.01	-0.01	5	83%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	1	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.11	-0.00	0.08	8	73%	0.03	0	0.00	6	100%	0.00
Awvee Storey	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.05,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	0.03	19	48%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.05
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	62%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	3	12%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.13,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	24	40%	0.02	2	-0.05	9	89%	0.02
Caron Butler	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	14	43%	-0.02	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.6	30.1	15.6	24.8	2.5	30.4	128.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +15.3%

WAS +1.3%

WAS +10.8%

WAS +19.0%

WAS +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	WAS	NBA	ORL	WAS	NBA
this game	17.5	16.0	15.6	95.3	109.3	104.4
season	16.4	15.1		104.4	107.4
opponent	15.6	15.7		105.5	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.6	18.4	16.5	18.7	17.5
WAS	14.0	18.6	16.3	15.6	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Diener	13	15	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.21	7	-19	26	16.5	17.6	-1.17	17.7	15.7	1.98
Terence Morris	14	15	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.17	5	-17	22	17.4	17.5	-0.12	17.7	15.7	1.98
Mario Kasun	12	14	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.12	1	-13	14	17.6	17.4	0.15	18.0	15.7	2.35
Keyon Dooling	49	49	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.09	-2	-10	8	17.4	17.5	-0.06	16.1	15.9	0.20
Dwight Howard	68	66	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	-8	4	16.9	19.5	-2.59	15.7	17.0	-1.26
Hedo Turkoglu	67	67	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	-9	6	17.2	18.2	-0.97	16.0	16.3	-0.36
Tony Battie	49	50	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	-1	-10	17.6	17.2	0.37	15.7	16.5	-0.85
Pat Garrity	43	42	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.08	-10	-2	-8	18.1	16.8	1.28	16.3	15.8	0.44
DeShawn Stevenson	67	65	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.13	-21	9	-30	17.6	17.0	0.58	16.0	16.3	-0.33
Steve Francis	48	47	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	0.02	-22	10	-32	17.9	16.9	1.00	15.1	17.1	-2.00

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antawn Jamison	78	77	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.09	13	-1	14	15.7	19.6	-3.96	17.4	17.8	-0.36
Gilbert Arenas	79	80	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.15	10	2	8	15.9	17.1	-1.21	17.6	16.0	1.56
Antonio Daniels	60	60	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.12	9	3	6	16.0	16.2	-0.23	17.4	17.5	-0.07
Michael Ruffin	22	23	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.11	8	4	4	15.9	16.1	-0.23	17.6	17.4	0.15
Brendan Haywood	50	52	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.01	12	0	12	15.7	16.5	-0.80	16.7	18.6	-1.83
Caron Butler	79	78	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.05	12	0	12	15.6	20.4	-4.78	17.7	14.9	2.84
Donell Taylor	20	18	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.17	-2	14	-16	19.3	15.0	4.25	18.3	17.2	1.04
Awvee Storey	25	26	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	11	-10	15.7	16.2	-0.50	16.6	17.8	-1.26
Etan Thomas	17	16	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	15	-18	18.1	15.5	2.60	18.6	17.2	1.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.71,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.87,0.81,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.9,0.91,0.98,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 91, DET 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.86,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.76,0.82,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.8,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
SAC 79, DEN 95	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.61,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.82,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.82,0.88,0.84,0.79,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1	95.0%
LAC 90, SAC 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.72,0.68,0.75,0.77,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.7,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.89,0.9,0.82,0.78,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.94,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%