NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	86		Excitement	7.2 [376]		MVP	Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf (SAC): +12.8%
Sacramento Kings	93		Comeback	1.1 [963]		LVP	Jamal Mashburn (DAL): -34.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Gatling	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.12,0.12	0.02	0.09	-0.01	17	57%	0.19	2	-0.08	3	33%	-0.12
George McCloud	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.02	11	68%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Oliver Miller	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0	0.01	-0.03	-0.02	5	64%	0.01	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Samaki Walker	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	64%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jim Jackson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	6	57%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Tony Dumas	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Derek Harper	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	10	45%	-0.01	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	-0.35	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.23,-0.29,-0.35	-0.10	-0.25	-0.00	14	34%	-0.26	1	-0.09	4	75%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.09	0.00	14	63%	0.17	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.03
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.09	-0.01	11	50%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Duane Causwell	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Edney	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Billy Owens	0,0,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	10	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Gamble	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.1,-0.09	-0.09	0.04	-0.09	0.03	17	60%	-0.04	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Olden Polynice	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	14	43%	-0.05	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	6	33%	-0.03	5	-0.20	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.6	24.5	16.4	25.4	2.4	33.5	128.1
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +13.6%

SAC +13.8%

SAC +21.6%

DAL -2.6%

SAC +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAC	NBA	DAL	SAC	NBA
this game	16.2	16.0	15.6	97.7	102.2	104.4
season	15.9	15.4		99.1	102.4
opponent	15.4	15.7		106.0	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.6	16.1	16.9	16.2	16.2
SAC	13.2	15.9	19.9	15.8	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Samaki Walker	47	46	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-7	7	15.5	17.0	-1.49	16.3	15.7	0.66
George McCloud	44	46	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.04	-5	-2	-3	16.3	16.0	0.27	16.5	15.5	1.01
Tony Dumas	22	23	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-4	1	17.8	15.7	2.12	16.7	15.8	0.87
Jason Kidd	61	63	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.15	-1	-6	5	15.2	18.5	-3.32	15.7	16.6	-0.88
Eric Montross	44	45	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.02	-8	1	-9	16.2	16.2	0.05	16.2	15.8	0.31
Oliver Miller	44	46	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.31	1	-8	9	16.2	16.2	-0.05	15.8	16.2	-0.31
Derek Harper	27	28	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.15	-6	-1	-5	18.5	15.2	3.32	16.6	15.7	0.88
Jim Jackson	66	68	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.21	-4	-3	-1	15.7	17.8	-2.12	15.8	16.7	-0.87
Jamal Mashburn	44	45	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.34	-2	-5	3	16.0	16.3	-0.27	15.5	16.5	-1.01
Chris Gatling	41	45	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.29	-7	0	-7	17.0	15.5	1.49	15.7	16.3	-0.66

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mitch Richmond	73	69	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.22	11	-4	15	15.9	16.5	-0.62	15.6	18.3	-2.72
Olden Polynice	80	77	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.22	11	-4	15	15.9	17.0	-1.14	16.8	11.9	4.88
Michael Smith	80	75	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.30	7	0	7	16.1	15.5	0.52	16.3	15.8	0.48
Corliss Williamson	46	43	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.30	5	2	3	16.1	15.9	0.26	16.0	16.4	-0.45
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	43	42	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.20	3	4	-1	16.6	15.5	1.06	16.0	16.3	-0.30
Tyus Edney	57	55	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	3	1	15.1	17.5	-2.35	16.7	15.3	1.41
Billy Owens	55	57	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	7	-7	16.0	16.1	-0.09	16.4	15.7	0.73
Kevin Gamble	10	11	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	9	-11	18.6	15.7	2.92	16.9	16.1	0.83
Duane Causwell	11	11	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.08	-4	11	-15	17.0	15.9	1.14	11.9	16.8	-4.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.71,0.82,0.86,0.87,0.86,0.83,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.68,0.82,0.76,0.61,0.62,0.71,0.77,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 77, ATL 82	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.86,0.9,0.88,0.8,0.77,0.8,0.75,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.78,0.82,0.89,0.81,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.86,0.73,1	93.3%
SAS 99, DEN 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.92,0.86,0.81,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.84,0.85,0.91,1	93.1%
SAC 84, MIN 86	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.79,0.73,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.85,0.82,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.82,0.78,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.75,0.85,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.61,0.79,0.91,0.58,1	92.7%