NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	99		Excitement	8.4 [257]		MVP	Malik Beasley (DEN): +29.2%
Denver Nuggets	102		Comeback	1.1 [952]		LVP	Trey Lyles (DEN): -25.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Davis Bertans	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	5	60%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.03	22	51%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.03
Bryn Forbes	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.02	11	59%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	69%	0.07	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0	-0.04	0.04	-0.00	12	50%	0.08	3	-0.07	6	50%	-0.11
Dante Cunningham	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	11	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	6	44%	-0.01	1	-0.04	4	25%	-0.10
Derrick White	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.06	-0.00	9	50%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.10
Patty Mills	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	6	36%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.18	0.11	-0.00	11	78%	0.29	0	0.00	5	100%	0.05
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.14	0.14	-0.02	0.13	-0.03	6	44%	0.18	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.06
Nikola Jokic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	14	75%	0.27	6	-0.21	0	0%	0.00
Juancho Hernangomez	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	6	43%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Brandon Goodwin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.02	8	62%	0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.15,0.11,0.11,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.01	27	55%	0.15	4	-0.18	2	50%	-0.01
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	3	37%	-0.02	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.03
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.18	-0.08	-0.01	10	14%	-0.18	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.5	25.5	17.3	24.7	2.3	36.4	136.0
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +24.9%

DEN +35.1%

DEN +24.2%

SAS -42.7%

DEN +8.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	15.0	15.0	14.3	103.1	106.2	109.3
season	14.8	14.8		111.7	112.0
opponent	14.6	14.4		108.1	110.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.3	15.4	13.6	14.7	15.0
DEN	15.7	12.8	15.8	15.9	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dante Cunningham	10	9	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.03	0	-3	3	17.0	14.7	2.27	14.0	15.1	-1.14
Derrick White	54	55	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.28	2	-5	7	15.7	14.0	1.68	16.0	13.7	2.27
Bryn Forbes	65	65	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.43	7	-10	17	15.3	14.4	0.91	15.7	13.6	2.05
DeMar DeRozan	74	73	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.40	6	-9	15	15.2	14.2	0.96	15.8	12.7	3.01
Rudy Gay	47	49	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.08	-6	3	-9	14.9	15.1	-0.19	15.8	14.2	1.65
LaMarcus Aldridge	75	74	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.42	5	-8	13	14.5	16.5	-1.99	15.7	12.8	2.87
Patty Mills	42	41	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.14	-5	2	-7	14.0	15.7	-1.68	13.7	16.0	-2.27
Marco Belinelli	38	37	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.02	-10	7	-17	14.0	15.6	-1.65	13.5	16.0	-2.47
Jakob Poeltl	36	37	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-1	-1	16.5	14.0	2.45	13.8	15.8	-2.03
Davis Bertans	39	40	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.02	-12	9	-21	14.1	15.6	-1.55	13.2	16.3	-3.10

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	79	79	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.51	0	3	-3	15.6	12.5	3.04	14.9	15.4	-0.54
Trey Lyles	36	38	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	-8	19	13.8	15.7	-1.92	13.9	15.6	-1.69
Mason Plumlee	64	61	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.50	-5	8	-13	15.1	14.8	0.33	15.7	13.8	1.88
Juancho Hernangomez	61	60	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.44	-4	7	-11	15.8	13.6	2.21	15.2	14.5	0.75
Monte Morris	43	44	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.10	7	-4	11	14.3	15.6	-1.24	13.8	15.9	-2.08
Nikola Jokic	71	73	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.20	3	0	3	15.5	13.7	1.77	15.5	13.4	2.07
Malik Beasley	54	56	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.03	8	-5	13	13.8	16.7	-2.91	14.2	16.0	-1.72
Brandon Goodwin	13	13	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.06	6	-3	9	11.1	15.7	-4.57	17.5	14.6	2.88
Torrey Craig	59	56	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.26	-11	14	-25	16.1	13.4	2.69	15.1	14.7	0.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.92,0.86,0.81,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.84,0.85,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 77, MIA 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.86,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.71,0.69,0.8,0.74,0.71,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.86,0.88,0.78,0.68,0.96,0.99,1,1	94.1%
ATL 82, DET 89	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.72,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.84,0.79,0.7,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.82,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.91,0.88,0.93,0.89,0.84,0.99,1	93.6%
GSW 106, BOS 111	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.74,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.87,0.86,0.88,0.8,0.77,0.83,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.75,0.8,0.73,0.64,0.77,0.75,0.69,0.66,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.74,0.85,0.94,0.88,0.79,0.85,0.77,0.89,0.96,0.84,0.84,1	93.4%