NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	99		Excitement	3.7 [1035]		MVP	Latrell Sprewell (GSW): +7.2%
Golden State Warriors	114		Comeback	1.1 [979]		LVP	Bryant Stith (DEN): -9.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Jackson	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	5	83%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Brooks Thompson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.02	-0.01	18	64%	0.11	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Dale Ellis	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	16	47%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jeff McInnis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Tom Hammonds	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	4	81%	0.04	3	-0.03	8	87%	0.01
Darvin Ham	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sarunas Marciulionis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.03	-0.01	0.07	15	64%	-0.00	3	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Ervin Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	62%	0.01	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Bryant Stith	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	7	14%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.01	-0.07	24	53%	0.14	3	-0.07	5	60%	-0.02
Mark Price	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	12	68%	0.10	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Felton Spencer	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	7	67%	0.08	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Donald Royal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	0.00	0.03	3	100%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Ray Owes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	13	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
B.J. Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	9	64%	0.06	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Lou Roe	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	67%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Todd Fuller	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mullin	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	9	52%	0.02	3	-0.02	5	80%	-0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	0.8	24.2	15.6	27.1	1.7	26.8	118.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +29.3%

GSW +7.1%

GSW +5.5%

GSW +7.4%

GSW +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	GSW	NBA	DEN	GSW	NBA
this game	15.8	14.7	15.6	105.3	120.0	104.4
season	15.2	15.0		102.3	104.4
opponent	15.4	15.3		109.1	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	18.0	18.4	13.8	13.6	15.8
GSW	12.6	16.7	12.9	17.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darvin Ham	6	6	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-13	11	15.2	15.8	-0.67	17.0	14.5	2.47
Sarunas Marciulionis	16	15	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.02	-3	-12	9	14.9	16.0	-1.04	13.8	14.8	-1.05
Bryant Stith	37	39	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.08	-4	-11	7	16.9	15.1	1.89	12.4	16.3	-3.94
Mark Jackson	40	42	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.09	-4	-11	7	16.2	15.5	0.74	13.7	15.5	-1.78
Tom Hammonds	61	64	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.28	2	-17	19	15.6	16.2	-0.64	15.4	13.3	2.12
Brooks Thompson	63	64	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.17	-3	-12	9	15.7	16.0	-0.30	16.3	11.3	5.04
Jeff McInnis	32	30	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.19	-16	1	-17	14.6	16.4	-1.87	16.0	14.1	1.97
Ervin Johnson	51	48	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.09	-14	-1	-13	16.5	15.0	1.47	13.5	15.9	-2.35
Dale Ellis	88	89	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.07	-13	-2	-11	15.8	15.2	0.67	14.5	17.0	-2.47
Antonio McDyess	76	78	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.07	-18	3	-21	15.5	16.9	-1.42	14.8	14.0	0.83

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Smith	73	74	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.10	15	0	15	13.8	17.5	-3.72	16.2	14.3	1.90
Mark Price	63	63	0.48	0.02	0.45	-0.05	18	-3	21	12.7	18.5	-5.80	16.4	14.5	1.96
Latrell Sprewell	80	81	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.02	15	0	15	15.2	12.0	3.19	16.0	14.5	1.46
Chris Mullin	80	79	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.11	11	4	7	14.4	16.3	-1.88	15.8	15.6	0.24
Felton Spencer	62	62	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.08	10	5	5	14.0	16.0	-2.02	16.0	15.4	0.59
Donald Royal	34	32	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	11	-7	16.1	13.9	2.14	15.7	15.9	-0.21
B.J. Armstrong	35	35	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.06	1	14	-13	17.8	12.9	4.89	14.7	16.5	-1.82
Ray Owes	15	14	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	12	-9	17.7	14.1	3.54	14.9	15.9	-1.02
Lou Roe	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	14	-13	7.3	14.9	-7.59	8.0	16.0	-7.97
Donyell Marshall	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	14	-13	7.3	14.9	-7.59	8.0	16.0	-7.97
Todd Fuller	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	14	-13	7.3	14.9	-7.59	8.0	16.0	-7.97
Andrew DeClercq	24	24	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.11	-5	20	-25	18.0	13.6	4.44	15.8	15.8	0.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.57,0.67,0.69,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.62,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.77,0.84,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.78,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.78,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 105, POR 122	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.86,0.84,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.76,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.98,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.1%
BOS 86, POR 106	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.8,0.7,0.78,0.8,0.8,0.8,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.82,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
WAS 77, MIA 97	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.54,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.72,0.82,0.84,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.78,0.67,0.71,0.8,0.88,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%