NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	102		Excitement	4.1 [949]		MVP	Latrell Sprewell (GSW): +8.5%
San Antonio Spurs	92		Comeback	3.5 [201]		LVP	Dominique Wilkins (SAS): -11.1%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Latrell Sprewell	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.02	16	59%	0.11	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
B.J. Armstrong	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.15	0.01	0.07	10	86%	0.10	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.00
Chris Mullin	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.02	0.04	9	83%	0.11	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.01	-0.03	8	63%	0.07	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.01
Felton Spencer	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	62%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Donald Royal	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	1	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ray Owes	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Price	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	4	55%	0.03	3	-0.05	3	33%	-0.01
Joe Smith	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	14	49%	0.03	3	-0.05	7	100%	0.02
Todd Fuller	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	-0.00	-0.04	3	0%	-0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.01	14	59%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	6	42%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	43%	0.00	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Greg Anderson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	14	52%	0.03	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	5	44%	-0.01	2	-0.02	6	50%	-0.00
Sean Elliott	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	0.06	12	50%	-0.09	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Vernon Maxwell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.01	0.03	18	47%	-0.03	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Dominique Wilkins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	13	39%	-0.05	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.4	23.2	15.4	24.5	2.5	30.4	123.6
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +43.5%

GSW +6.4%

SAS -3.6%

GSW +1.8%

GSW +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAS	NBA	GSW	SAS	NBA
this game	14.2	17.6	15.6	110.9	103.4	104.4
season	15.0	16.8		104.4	100.8
opponent	15.4	15.4		109.4	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.3	17.0	14.5	13.0	14.2
SAS	18.2	20.9	19.8	13.2	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Felton Spencer	29	29	0.66	-0.16	0.82	-0.07	25	-15	40	15.6	13.6	1.95	21.4	15.8	5.56
Chris Mullin	73	69	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.14	15	-5	20	14.1	14.9	-0.81	17.7	17.5	0.17
Joe Smith	79	78	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.07	17	-7	24	13.6	18.0	-4.37	17.8	16.5	1.24
Latrell Sprewell	81	80	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.19	8	2	6	13.7	18.4	-4.67	17.0	23.2	-6.22
Mark Price	35	36	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.10	10	0	10	13.7	14.6	-0.91	19.4	16.5	2.91
B.J. Armstrong	62	59	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.19	-3	13	-16	14.9	12.9	1.95	15.8	21.2	-5.39
Bimbo Coles	43	41	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.12	-3	13	-16	14.4	14.1	0.27	17.0	18.2	-1.17
Ray Owes	8	6	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.07	-3	13	-16	18.5	13.8	4.65	15.2	17.8	-2.64
Donald Royal	14	13	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.01	-2	12	-14	12.6	14.5	-1.90	19.9	17.2	2.69
Todd Fuller	8	8	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	13	-16	18.6	13.8	4.79	17.7	17.6	0.13
Andrew DeClercq	28	26	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.19	-11	21	-32	14.1	14.3	-0.26	16.9	17.9	-1.00

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cory Alexander	17	16	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.06	5	-15	20	14.4	18.4	-4.05	12.6	14.6	-2.04
Carl Herrera	27	28	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-12	14	17.7	17.6	0.11	15.5	13.7	1.75
Monty Williams	9	9	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.04	2	-12	14	12.9	18.2	-5.27	12.4	14.4	-2.00
Vinny Del Negro	51	53	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.25	4	-14	18	15.6	20.3	-4.73	14.3	14.2	0.12
Will Perdue	42	43	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.13	0	-10	10	18.0	17.3	0.70	14.7	13.8	0.93
Greg Anderson	35	37	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.02	-13	3	-16	20.1	16.0	4.10	14.3	14.2	0.12
Vernon Maxwell	65	67	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.11	-11	1	-12	17.4	18.3	-0.91	13.7	15.8	-2.13
Sean Elliott	75	76	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.19	-10	0	-10	17.6	17.7	-0.10	13.7	16.9	-3.18
Dominique Wilkins	52	55	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.12	-14	4	-18	18.7	16.1	2.70	14.9	13.3	1.64
Avery Johnson	72	76	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.15	-15	5	-20	18.4	14.4	4.05	14.6	12.6	2.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.74,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.24,0.13,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 124, SAC 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.76,0.82,0.75,0.82,0.82,0.75,0.71,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.5,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.17,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.9%
SAC 123, MIA 113	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.72,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.76,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.43,0.39,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.15,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.7%
WAS 106, CLE 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.68,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.26,0.17,0.11,0.17,0.13,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%