NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	123		Excitement	5.7 [721]		MVP	Willie Cauley-Stein (SAC): +17.1%
Miami Heat	113		Comeback	3.1 [135]		LVP	Kelly Olynyk (MIA): -13.4%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Willie Cauley-Stein	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.14	0.02	-0.00	17	63%	0.17	0	0.00	7	57%	0.00
Buddy Hield	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.01	-0.00	14	72%	0.22	3	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
Nemanja Bjelica	0.10	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.01	-0.03	15	56%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Kosta Koufos	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yogi Ferrell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Iman Shumpert	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.05	7	57%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Jackson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	6	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marvin Bagley III	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	7	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
De'Aaron Fox	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	15	57%	0.08	6	-0.12	5	60%	-0.03
Frank Mason	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	8	32%	-0.05	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.17	0.03	0.05	21	63%	0.15	0	0.00	7	100%	0.02
Goran Dragic	0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	15	62%	0.11	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.02
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	9	39%	0.00	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0.03	4	57%	0.02	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	10	36%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	8	44%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.02	0.03	10	62%	0.03	6	-0.13	6	33%	-0.05
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	7	21%	-0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.3	25.6	15.5	26.3	1.8	36.0	131.9
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +40.5%

MIA -6.3%

SAC +2.3%

SAC +13.8%

MIA -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MIA	NBA	SAC	MIA	NBA
this game	13.6	12.4	14.3	110.8	102.7	109.3
season	13.3	14.8		109.2	106.3
opponent	14.3	14.3		106.7	110.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.0	14.2	11.6	14.9	13.6
MIA	11.2	14.6	12.4	11.8	12.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Willie Cauley-Stein	78	80	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.02	23	-13	36	12.7	15.8	-3.16	13.0	10.9	2.15
Iman Shumpert	63	62	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.08	17	-7	24	12.7	14.8	-2.12	12.7	12.0	0.72
Buddy Hield	83	83	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.23	10	0	10	13.3	14.7	-1.40	12.4	12.5	-0.12
De'Aaron Fox	78	79	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.07	15	-5	20	13.3	14.5	-1.22	12.6	12.0	0.59
Nemanja Bjelica	75	76	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.11	11	-1	12	13.8	13.3	0.52	12.4	12.5	-0.06
Frank Mason	42	39	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.14	-3	13	-16	14.5	13.1	1.48	11.8	12.8	-0.98
Marvin Bagley III	40	37	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	15	-20	13.9	13.5	0.38	12.2	12.5	-0.28
Justin Jackson	50	50	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.10	-6	16	-22	14.4	13.0	1.44	12.0	12.7	-0.71
Yogi Ferrell	19	19	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.02	-2	12	-14	14.6	13.4	1.21	13.2	12.3	0.88
Kosta Koufos	27	25	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.16	-10	20	-30	16.2	12.8	3.38	10.9	12.9	-2.00

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Johnson	56	57	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.31	10	-20	30	11.4	13.5	-2.11	15.1	12.1	3.03
Josh Richardson	84	85	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.32	6	-16	22	11.8	14.5	-2.66	14.1	12.2	1.88
Justise Winslow	53	56	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	-6	2	12.6	12.3	0.27	13.5	13.8	-0.34
Bam Adebayo	43	43	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.01	-6	-4	-2	12.8	12.2	0.56	14.3	13.2	1.06
Kelly Olynyk	38	37	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.02	-9	-1	-8	12.4	12.4	-0.05	13.2	13.8	-0.58
Dwyane Wade	61	62	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.06	-12	2	-14	12.9	11.8	1.14	13.4	13.9	-0.48
Hassan Whiteside	67	68	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.20	-4	-6	2	12.2	12.8	-0.56	13.2	14.3	-1.06
Rodney McGruder	75	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.14	-12	2	-14	12.8	11.6	1.26	13.1	14.7	-1.62
Goran Dragic	73	72	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.04	-19	9	-28	13.0	11.2	1.78	13.0	14.8	-1.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.72,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.76,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.43,0.39,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.15,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 110, DET 100	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.64,0.58,0.63,0.54,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%
GSW 102, SAS 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.74,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.24,0.13,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	94.7%
LAC 119, PHX 105	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.72,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.26,0.16,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%