NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	135		Excitement	6.9 [426]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +47.5%
Denver Nuggets	142		Comeback	1.4 [966]		LVP	Marvin Bagley III (DAL): -4.3%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Max Christie	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.19,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.05	-0.01	5	90%	0.19	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Cooper Flagg	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.13	0.00	0.04	18	62%	0.10	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
P.J. Washington	0.10	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.02	0.02	15	59%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Klay Thompson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.00	6	67%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.00	8	61%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Smith	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	-0.00	5	80%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Naji Marshall	0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.17,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.01	17	52%	0.08	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.01
Dwight Powell	0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.00	2	64%	0.04	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.02
Ryan Nembhard	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Poulakidas	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.03	0.00	6	58%	0.02	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.07
Marvin Bagley III	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	8	39%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.47	0.47	0.41	0.08	0.02	28	85%	0.57	4	-0.09	6	100%	0.03
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.25	0.25	0.17	0.09	0.02	10	81%	0.25	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Nikola Joki?	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.08	-0.02	19	52%	0.14	1	-0.00	6	100%	0.04
Cameron Johnson	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	8	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	4	60%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Julian Strawther	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.01	7	57%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	8	58%	0.07	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.03
Spencer Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	3	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	0.0	26.1	0.0	34.6	0.0	38.3	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.7	2.2	32.7	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +54.7%

DAL -3.2%

DEN +1.1%

DAL -2.6%

DEN +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	13.5	13.9	14.2	129.8	134.0	113.7
season	13.9	14.6		109.8	120.0
opponent	14.1	14.0		115.0	115.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.7	15.6	12.5	11.7	13.5
DEN	14.0	13.8	12.8	15.0	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Poulakidas	20	20	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.10	5	-12	17	13.3	13.6	-0.28	15.3	13.5	1.84
Tyler Smith	55	57	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.07	2	-9	11	13.5	13.5	0.04	14.4	13.2	1.18
Marvin Bagley III	75	75	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.13	4	-11	15	13.4	13.9	-0.56	14.8	11.5	3.26
Ryan Nembhard	28	28	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-7	7	13.6	13.5	0.16	14.6	13.6	1.07
Klay Thompson	53	54	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-4	1	13.5	13.5	-0.04	13.3	14.4	-1.07
Brandon Williams	99	100	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.28	0	-7	7	13.4	15.8	-2.39	14.1	10.2	3.91
Max Christie	87	88	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.28	-1	-6	5	13.4	14.3	-0.91	14.8	9.3	5.45
Cooper Flagg	80	82	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.27	-2	-5	3	13.2	14.5	-1.26	14.8	10.7	4.13
Naji Marshall	80	80	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.25	-3	-4	1	13.2	14.5	-1.26	14.9	10.7	4.25
Khris Middleton	86	87	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.15	-9	2	-11	13.9	11.7	2.18	13.7	14.7	-1.01
P.J. Washington	85	86	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.19	-10	3	-13	13.5	13.8	-0.38	14.5	11.3	3.15
Dwight Powell	103	104	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.30	-7	0	-7	13.6	9.0	4.57	13.8	14.5	-0.65

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Joki?	106	104	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	13.9	0.0	13.86	13.5	0.0	13.53
Jamal Murray	99	97	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.27	5	2	3	14.4	6.0	8.41	13.5	13.7	-0.20
Christian Braun	83	83	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.19	7	0	7	14.7	10.9	3.82	13.9	12.1	1.80
Bruce Brown	92	90	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.28	3	4	-1	14.1	12.3	1.81	13.2	15.4	-2.11
Cameron Johnson	80	80	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.25	3	4	-1	14.9	10.7	4.25	13.2	14.5	-1.26
Tim Hardaway Jr.	94	92	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.26	1	6	-5	14.3	10.4	3.88	13.6	12.7	0.88
Julian Strawther	83	82	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.19	2	5	-3	14.2	12.7	1.43	13.4	14.0	-0.54
Peyton Watson	91	89	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.34	-6	13	-19	14.1	12.3	1.85	12.9	17.5	-4.68
Spencer Jones	43	44	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.12	-8	15	-23	15.6	12.7	2.90	13.1	13.8	-0.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.77,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.56,0.74,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.83,0.61,0.89,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 97, LAC 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.65,0.69,0.75,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.73,0.73,0.8,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.89,0.84,0.89,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.89,0.9,0.98,1	93.6%
IND 86, MIL 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.49,0.59,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.58,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.64,0.74,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.81,0.9,0.95,0.96,1	93.5%
MIN 93, WAS 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.63,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.74,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.66,0.7,0.82,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.85,0.87,0.68,0.84,0.91,1,1	93.3%