NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	122		Excitement	9.5 [108]		MVP	Amen Thompson (HOU): +94.0%
Houston Rockets	123		Comeback	18.8 [71]		LVP	Tari Eason (HOU): -20.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Simone Fontecchio	0.64	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.64	0.20	0.47	0.03	12	87%	0.64	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.30	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.3	0.18	0.11	-0.01	21	64%	0.31	1	-0.01	8	75%	-0.00
Tyler Herro	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.02	0.01	22	53%	0.10	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Pelle Larsson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09	0.08	0.03	0.01	12	66%	0.21	2	-0.11	5	60%	-0.01
Myron Gardner	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	4	100%	0.14	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Dru Smith	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.05	-0.02	15	50%	0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kel'el Ware	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jovi?	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Amen Thompson	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.94	0.94	0.10	0.85	0.02	17	65%	1.04	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.01
Reed Sheppard	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.44	0.44	0.22	0.23	0.00	12	88%	0.44	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.22,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.08	0.17	0.00	4	100%	0.25	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alperen Sengun	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	-0.00	-0.04	13	68%	0.22	3	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.04	0.04	0.13	-0.09	-0.00	17	71%	0.11	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Jabari Smith Jr.	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.08,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	13	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Josh Okogie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jae'Sean Tate	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tari Eason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.2	-0.20	-0.06	-0.14	0.00	7	44%	0.02	3	-0.22	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.3	0.5	30.4	13.7	24.0	0.0	34.4	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +69.7%

MIA -5.1%

HOU +4.8%

MIA -24.6%

HOU +5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	HOU	NBA	MIA	HOU	NBA
this game	13.3	16.9	14.2	125.8	130.9	113.7
season	12.9	15.4		114.3	115.9
opponent	14.0	14.5		111.0	112.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.6	13.5	14.6	12.6	13.3
HOU	15.1	17.8	18.1	16.8	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Davion Mitchell	81	81	0.27	-0.77	1.04	0.03	8	-9	17	13.4	12.5	0.92	16.9	17.2	-0.28
Myron Gardner	73	73	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-4	7	14.0	11.0	2.96	17.0	16.6	0.44
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	74	71	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	1	-3	13.9	11.3	2.57	16.5	18.2	-1.72
Nikola Jovi?	7	8	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	0	-1	12.6	13.3	-0.75	16.7	16.9	-0.18
Dru Smith	33	31	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.03	-3	2	-5	12.5	13.7	-1.19	15.5	17.6	-2.14
Kel'el Ware	48	48	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.13	-9	8	-17	13.1	13.4	-0.37	15.9	18.0	-2.04
Tyler Herro	91	90	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.55	8	-9	17	13.3	13.0	0.29	17.1	13.5	3.57
Bam Adebayo	91	90	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.55	8	-9	17	13.3	13.0	0.29	17.1	13.5	3.57
Simone Fontecchio	97	94	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.47	-1	0	-1	13.3	0.0	13.27	16.9	0.0	16.91
Pelle Larsson	78	77	-0.84	0.34	-1.19	-0.55	-10	9	-19	12.6	16.1	-3.46	16.3	19.9	-3.62

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Okogie	22	23	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.42	10	-9	19	18.1	16.6	1.54	13.7	13.1	0.50
Aaron Holiday	31	31	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.44	9	-8	17	17.9	16.4	1.43	13.5	13.2	0.27
Reed Sheppard	88	91	0.58	-0.09	0.67	0.38	7	-6	13	16.7	19.5	-2.76	13.5	9.0	4.55
Jabari Smith Jr.	94	97	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.47	1	0	1	16.9	0.0	16.91	13.3	0.0	13.27
Kevin Durant	94	97	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.47	1	0	1	16.9	0.0	16.91	13.3	0.0	13.27
Amen Thompson	94	97	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.47	1	0	1	16.9	0.0	16.91	13.3	0.0	13.27
Alperen Sengun	73	72	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.06	-10	11	-21	17.1	16.4	0.69	12.8	14.5	-1.63
Tari Eason	86	87	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	-0.17	-4	5	-9	16.8	18.4	-1.60	13.5	11.5	1.97
Jae'Sean Tate	21	21	-0.29	0.79	-1.09	-0.06	-8	9	-17	17.7	16.7	0.97	15.3	12.7	2.58
Dorian Finney-Smith	70	72	-0.35	0.85	-1.19	-0.08	-9	10	-19	16.9	16.8	0.11	13.5	12.6	0.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.36,0.46,0.57,0.49,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.5,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.37,0.44,0.25,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.2,0.42,0.59,0.71,0.72,0.83,0.93,0.96,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 101, SAC 116	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.38,0.41,0.27,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.18,0.24,0.33,0.47,0.64,0.76,0.61,0.69,0.89,0.99,1,1	91.3%
DAL 92, CHI 94	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.53,0.79,0.71,0.83,0.89,0.93,0.91,0.92,1	91.0%
POR 99, HOU 106	0.5,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.47,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.32,0.59,0.66,0.73,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,1	90.8%