NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	115		Excitement	2.8 [238]		MVP	Jakob Poeltl (TOR): +36.8%
Denver Nuggets	121		Comeback	5.9 [386]		LVP	Jamal Shead (TOR): -11.2%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jakob Poeltl	0.37	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.37	0.16	0.22	0.01	14	68%	0.37	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.00
Ja'Kobe Walter	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.15	0.02	0.00	6	100%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Immanuel Quickley	0.12	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.05	0.01	11	68%	0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Ingram	0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.09	0.00	12	63%	0.23	3	-0.11	6	67%	-0.02
Sandro Mamukelashvili	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jamison Battle	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	43%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Scottie Barnes	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.09,0.11,0.01	-0.06	0.05	-0.01	18	42%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
RJ Barrett	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.04	-0.02	14	55%	0.08	3	-0.09	5	100%	0.03
Jamal Shead	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	7	27%	-0.09	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.31,0.27,0.35	0.35	0.18	0.19	0.02	18	67%	0.38	1	-0.03	10	90%	0.04
Nikola Joki?	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.32	0.32	0.10	0.22	0.01	14	67%	0.38	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.01
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.24,0.2,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.13	0.14	-0.00	16	72%	0.34	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.08	0.18	-0.01	10	64%	0.30	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.04
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	6	86%	0.13	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tyus Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.04	0.01	9	61%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cameron Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	7	35%	-0.04	1	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	1.4	26.0	14.6	27.1	0.0	37.9	0.0
league avg	26.5	1.9	29.2	14.2	29.9	2.1	32.8	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +48.6%

TOR -1.9%

DEN +3.3%

TOR -1.1%

DEN +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DEN	NBA	TOR	DEN	NBA
this game	15.3	15.0	14.2	121.1	127.4	113.4
season	13.9	14.6		113.5	119.3
opponent	14.1	14.8		114.7	110.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	13.2	15.7	16.0	16.6	15.3
DEN	14.4	14.3	15.3	16.1	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sandro Mamukelashvili	60	60	0.51	-1.01	1.52	0.01	17	-23	40	14.5	16.6	-2.08	15.1	14.8	0.35
Jamison Battle	51	51	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.04	6	-12	18	15.5	15.1	0.40	15.0	14.9	0.11
Ja'Kobe Walter	84	85	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.14	-3	-3	0	15.5	13.3	2.27	14.9	15.7	-0.79
Jamal Shead	84	85	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.24	0	-6	6	15.4	14.4	1.04	15.5	10.6	4.91
Scottie Barnes	95	95	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	0	-6	15.3	0.0	15.28	15.0	0.0	14.99
RJ Barrett	76	76	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.35	-6	0	-6	15.3	15.2	0.16	15.9	11.2	4.72
Immanuel Quickley	78	78	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.34	-7	1	-8	15.5	14.2	1.28	15.6	12.2	3.35
Brandon Ingram	86	86	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.34	-9	3	-12	15.8	9.9	5.96	15.5	9.9	5.63
Jakob Poeltl	83	84	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.34	-9	3	-12	15.7	12.1	3.66	15.5	11.2	4.31

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	85	86	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.34	9	-3	12	15.7	9.0	6.69	15.8	9.9	5.96
Cameron Johnson	92	93	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.36	8	-2	10	15.3	5.3	9.97	15.3	12.5	2.84
Aaron Gordon	78	78	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.34	7	-1	8	15.6	12.2	3.35	15.5	14.2	1.28
Christian Braun	80	82	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.36	6	0	6	15.7	11.1	4.66	15.5	13.9	1.58
Nikola Joki?	95	95	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	15.0	0.0	14.99	15.3	0.0	15.28
Bruce Brown	85	86	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.39	-1	7	-8	15.7	9.0	6.69	14.8	20.1	-5.33
Tim Hardaway Jr.	81	80	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.45	-4	10	-14	15.6	11.7	3.84	15.4	14.9	0.50
Tyus Jones	19	19	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.04	4	2	2	15.5	14.9	0.61	13.9	15.6	-1.67
Spencer Jones	60	60	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.13	-8	14	-22	15.4	14.2	1.25	15.3	15.2	0.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.15,0.3,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.54,0.83,0.75,0.72,0.68,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 88, PHX 93	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.54,0.59,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.21,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.25,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.59,0.73,0.6,0.71,0.78,0.92,1	92.2%
WAS 86, SAC 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.36,0.23,0.28,0.24,0.27,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.57,0.47,0.57,0.53,0.77,0.69,0.9,0.94,1,1	91.7%
MEM 78, ORL 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.33,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.84,0.91,0.95,1	91.3%