NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	134		Excitement	7.0 [372]		MVP	Luka Don?i? (LAL): +61.4%
Miami Heat	126		Comeback	4.1 [124]		LVP	Pelle Larsson (MIA): -13.7%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luka Don?i?	0.61	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.47,0.52,0.62,0.61	0.45	0.23	0.07	30	76%	0.67	2	-0.06	19	79%	0.03
Austin Reaves	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.00	12	53%	0.15	2	-0.04	10	60%	-0.03
Marcus Smart	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	-0.00	6	62%	0.13	2	-0.03	9	89%	0.02
Jake LaRavia	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	3	83%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.01,0,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	12	66%	0.09	3	-0.06	5	60%	-0.04
Rui Hachimura	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	58%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jaxson Hayes	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	6	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Luke Kennard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Deandre Ayton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.12	0.05	-0.00	19	58%	0.17	0	0.00	10	70%	-0.03
Norman Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.04	0.01	13	65%	0.19	1	-0.06	5	100%	0.05
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.01	0.02	10	80%	0.13	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kel'el Ware	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	11	64%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	-0.02	19	54%	0.13	4	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.02	5	70%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Simone Fontecchio	0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	58%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dru Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pelle Larsson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.05	0.01	8	50%	-0.01	4	-0.13	6	83%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	0.0	27.9	0.0	25.8	0.0	49.2	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.0	14.3	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +25.6%

LAL +15.1%

LAL +10.4%

LAL +3.3%

MIA -4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	MIA	NBA	LAL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.8	13.2	14.2	130.1	123.5	113.4
season	14.5	12.8		115.9	113.9
opponent	14.4	14.1		110.8	114.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	15.3	14.8	14.0	15.0	14.8
MIA	11.0	15.8	13.7	12.7	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Austin Reaves	93	91	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.20	15	-7	22	14.5	18.0	-3.53	13.4	12.1	1.28
Marcus Smart	65	66	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.23	13	-5	18	14.3	15.6	-1.29	13.3	13.0	0.32
Deandre Ayton	67	68	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.17	14	-6	20	14.8	14.8	0.02	13.6	12.5	1.06
Luka Don?i?	103	102	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.27	8	0	8	14.8	0.0	14.82	13.2	0.0	13.24
Luke Kennard	92	90	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.26	7	1	6	15.1	12.5	2.64	13.2	13.8	-0.68
LeBron James	88	87	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.29	4	4	0	14.9	14.5	0.41	13.2	13.5	-0.27
Jake LaRavia	86	83	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.12	8	0	8	14.8	14.8	-0.01	13.8	10.7	3.14
Rui Hachimura	77	75	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.07	9	-1	10	14.9	14.6	0.32	13.4	12.7	0.67
Jaxson Hayes	82	80	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.09	7	1	6	14.8	14.7	0.13	13.7	11.5	2.15

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dru Smith	68	70	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.20	-3	-5	2	13.5	12.7	0.79	14.9	14.7	0.17
Kel'el Ware	79	82	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.17	-5	-3	-2	13.6	12.0	1.54	15.0	14.0	0.96
Norman Powell	94	95	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.33	-4	-4	0	13.1	14.7	-1.64	15.4	8.4	6.98
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	87	88	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.31	-5	-3	-2	12.9	15.3	-2.38	14.9	14.2	0.72
Simone Fontecchio	81	82	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.20	-9	1	-10	13.1	13.8	-0.66	15.1	13.7	1.38
Bam Adebayo	90	91	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.14	-16	8	-24	13.4	12.3	1.02	14.5	17.2	-2.76
Davion Mitchell	88	89	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.18	-15	7	-22	13.5	11.3	2.26	14.5	16.9	-2.36
Tyler Herro	91	93	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.20	-15	7	-22	13.4	12.1	1.28	14.5	18.0	-3.53
Pelle Larsson	89	90	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.18	-16	8	-24	13.5	11.6	1.86	14.7	15.4	-0.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.57,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.69,0.77,0.77,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.57,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.29,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.19,0.05,0.11,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 101, NYK 90	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.8,0.75,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.61,0.52,0.39,0.42,0.29,0.27,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.13,0.09,0.13,0.2,0.09,0.19,0.21,0.02,0,0	92.2%
SAC 135, MIL 133	0.5,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.71,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.72,0.64,0.68,0.75,0.81,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.59,0.69,0.68,0.64,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.42,0.32,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.08,0.15,0.16,0.08,0	92.1%
CHA 100, LAC 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.81,0.76,0.7,0.73,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.67,0.59,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.34,0.24,0.19,0.07,0.19,0.26,0.29,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.11,0.22,0.15,0	91.9%