NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	123		Excitement	7.2 [357]		MVP	James Harden (CLE): +25.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	116		Comeback	2.1 [688]		LVP	Jaylon Tyson (CLE): -8.2%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.26	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.21	0.07	0.03	10	82%	0.28	2	-0.03	13	85%	0.02
Sam Merrill	0.23	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23	0.11	0.12	-0.01	12	65%	0.23	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Evan Mobley	0.19	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.19,0.19	0.12	0.08	0.01	21	57%	0.19	0	0.00	5	60%	0.01
Keon Ellis	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.08	0.08	0.00	4	100%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Wade	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.00	8	56%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.00	0.07	-0.01	6	50%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schr�der	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	-0.00	2	60%	0.08	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Donovan Mitchell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	0.01	0.01	0.04	14	46%	-0.01	0	0.00	13	77%	-0.00
Thomas Bryant	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.01	4	62%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jaylon Tyson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pete Nance	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.21,0.21,0.28,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.13	0.11	0.00	6	93%	0.23	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Ousmane Dieng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.10	0.07	-0.03	12	73%	0.28	2	-0.08	2	0%	-0.01
Ryan Rollins	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.05	0.00	13	63%	0.15	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Kevin Porter Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.13	0.01	0.06	15	66%	0.12	1	-0.04	8	100%	0.01
Taurean Prince	0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	7	57%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.03	19	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
AJ Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jericho Sims	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.01	3	57%	0.01	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	6	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.5	24.8	0.0	30.3	0.0	42.4	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.0	14.3	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +0.6%

CLE +33.4%

CLE +17.1%

CLE +1.0%

MIL -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	MIL	NBA	CLE	MIL	NBA
this game	14.5	15.5	14.2	129.5	119.6	113.4
season	13.6	14.7		116.5	111.3
opponent	14.3	14.6		117.0	111.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	14.6	14.3	14.9	14.2	14.5
MIL	15.8	16.3	16.4	13.5	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	82	82	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.40	12	-5	17	14.4	15.1	-0.72	15.7	14.1	1.68
Sam Merrill	74	74	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.36	12	-5	17	14.6	14.1	0.46	15.4	15.6	-0.16
Evan Mobley	77	78	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.41	9	-2	11	14.4	14.6	-0.20	15.7	14.5	1.26
Max Strus	95	97	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	14.5	0.0	14.45	15.5	0.0	15.48
Donovan Mitchell	95	97	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	14.5	0.0	14.45	15.5	0.0	15.48
Keon Ellis	80	82	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.21	5	2	3	14.4	14.7	-0.33	16.3	11.0	5.30
Dean Wade	66	69	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	3	1	14.6	14.1	0.55	16.4	13.2	3.14
Jaylon Tyson	47	47	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.09	5	2	3	14.8	14.1	0.75	15.5	15.5	-0.03
Thomas Bryant	50	49	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.04	9	-2	11	15.0	13.9	1.11	15.8	15.2	0.55
Dennis Schr�der	62	63	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.06	7	0	7	14.6	14.2	0.46	15.6	15.3	0.34

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Kuzma	46	46	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.05	6	-13	19	16.9	14.2	2.76	14.8	14.1	0.77
Kevin Porter Jr.	87	86	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	-5	3	15.7	13.5	2.21	14.3	15.7	-1.34
Jericho Sims	30	30	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.11	-18	11	-29	17.7	14.5	3.21	14.8	14.3	0.51
Taurean Prince	62	60	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.27	-7	0	-7	16.9	13.0	3.84	14.6	14.2	0.45
Pete Nance	90	88	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.17	-11	4	-15	16.2	6.4	9.76	14.5	14.0	0.49
Bobby Portis	97	95	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.29	-7	0	-7	15.5	0.0	15.48	14.5	0.0	14.45
AJ Green	85	84	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.25	-9	2	-11	15.3	16.9	-1.63	14.8	11.9	2.88
Ousmane Dieng	86	86	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.28	-8	1	-9	15.3	16.5	-1.20	14.7	12.0	2.71
Ryan Rollins	72	72	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.28	-10	3	-13	15.2	16.4	-1.18	15.1	12.6	2.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.24,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.27,0.4,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.63,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.38,0.35,0.29,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.19,0.17,0.19,0.05,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 110, GSW 104	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.49,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.47,0.35,0.41,0.31,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.48,0.32,0.47,0.29,0.28,0.14,0.06,0.03,0.01,0	92.1%
DAL 103, OKC 93	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.46,0.42,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.37,0.41,0.24,0.09,0.11,0.04,0.01,0,0	91.9%
UTA 106, LAL 93	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.39,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.5,0.6,0.63,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.65,0.57,0.62,0.37,0.31,0.24,0.18,0.07,0,0,0,0	91.7%